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Strategies & Market Trends : Zeev's Turnips - No Politics -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: orkrious who wrote (52318)	4/17/2002 1:55:41 PM
From: Crimson Ghost	Respond to of 99280

I still see stagflation. Not as bad as the 70s, but still stagflation. Even now price pressures are rising for services and goods not facing foreign competition. These pressures will greatly intensify when the dollar takes a big hit. The great Greenie's super easy monetary policy in a very leveraged economy, continued huge balance of payments deficits, plus the return of big federal deficits make this outcome highly probable IMHO. Interesting that long-term rates fell sharply coming out of the 1990-91 recession but are rising strongly coming out of this mini-recession despite the lowest short term rates in several decades. This reflects the egregious credit market and balance of payments excesses today compared with a decade ago.