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To: yard_man who wrote (160614)4/17/2002 4:52:48 PM
From: reaper  Read Replies (5) | Respond to of 436258
 
Tip, what you're missing is that Kohl's WILL grow in a recession. Look at one of my favorite retailers, Children's Place. They had comps of negative <7%> but still grew total sales by 13%. Because they generate sufficient internal cash flow to GROW the number of stores even in tough economic times. Or look at American Eagle. There IS today a recession in that business (American Eagle, Abercrombie, Gap, Pacific Sunwear) -- but again despite terrible negative comps they are GROWING their revenues and EPS because they generate sufficient cash from operations to grow their store base.

So Kohl's, by virtue of their best-in-class return on capital, will grow their store base and their business through the upcoming retail recession. Inferior companies like Sears, Federated, Pennys, Target, KMart etc will NOT grow as they will not generate sufficient cash to do so due to their inherently lower return businesses. Money will FLEE the shrinking companies and increasingly pile into the few companies that still grow. Sears, another great American institution being ruined by truly incompetent management, will go BK and Kohl's will buy their properties out of bankruptcy court for pennies on the dollar.

Dood, lions pick on the sick and the injured for a reason. Leave the alpha males alone <g>

Cheers