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To: Michael Bakunin who wrote (7631)4/17/2002 10:02:03 PM
From: Michael Bakunin  Respond to of 8218
 
The link is up.

I have an urge to do a quickie dividend discount model. Let me be explicit: this is basically fluff, but it is food for thought.

Baby DDM:
Pr = Div / ( RR - g ) or RR = g + Div/Pr
g = rr * ROE

assume buybacks count as dividends

Pr 86.5 (aftermarket), ROE 32% forecast, FY01 retention rate 18%, dividend + buybacks @ rr $3.60 (rounding)

RR = 5.8% + 3.6/86.5 = 10%

just fun,

-mb