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To: Lizzie Tudor who wrote (11147)	4/17/2002 10:24:15 PM
From: techanalyst1	Respond to of 57684

What do I think will happen to the stock? Hmmm.... well, tomorrow I don't know. But I think that it's not seen it's lows. I think it sees sub 20 before it finally bottoms. That's what I'd say looking at the chart on a longer term view but from a fundamental side it makes sense (valuation, I don't know).... Are ceo's going to suddenly say, "Oh... It's July 1st! Time to spend!"? I don't know. That's not how I work my household budget (not that I work on a yearly basis, but kinda in mini form... when school starts I know that I have to spend a good chunk of money on sports for each child, after school classes, lab fees, uniforms, property taxes, insurance, clothes etc... I don't mid year suddenly think, well now I'll spend more on this or that. So kinda like a company I guess). I would guess that companies set their budgets last fall or so and have become a little bit tighter in the last few weeks. The cat's out of the bag. Now ceo's know that not only are they cautious, but so are other ceos. Why suddenly change in the summer? I think that they won't and companies will be seeing no rebound come July cc's. At that time they'll hope for a year end budget flush and increasing IT budgets for 2003. Sooooooooooooo.............. I think that sebl goes lower still next quarter and the low is in July or Sept/Oct. This scenario really only needs no growth and limited visibility to pan out because full year estimates would have to come down. TA

To: Lizzie Tudor who wrote (11147)	4/18/2002 12:22:59 AM
From: RobertHChaney	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 57684

What a great company - SEBL experiences "the worst quarter in the software industry's history", and still posts an excellent 13.5% net margin and grows its cash equivalents by $221M. I'm with you Lizzie. I bought some last week at $23, and plan to buy a lot more if falls a few bucks below that level this week. I think the best times to buy were last fall - when everything was in shambles, and about now - as the market senses serious uncertainty about the turnaround in enterprise software spending. Not a few quarters from now, when it becomes obvious to everyone that things are improving rapidly. We may get a shot at VRTS also, if SEBL and EMC results add further weight to its own negative Q2 forecast. Cheers, Robert