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Technology Stocks : Advanced Micro Devices - Moderated (AMD) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: heatsinker2 who wrote (77626)	4/18/2002 10:44:59 AM
From: Pravin Kamdar	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 275872

Heat, You make your own luck. I shorted because I knew the stock was going down, and didn't want to pay the option premium. This story from Xbit Labs is spot on (in fact, I have raised most of his points, already): xbitlabs.com Pravin.

To: heatsinker2 who wrote (77626)	4/18/2002 11:44:56 AM
From: that_crazy_doug	Respond to of 275872

<< Pravin- I think you were lucky. Personally, I can't understand why anyone would mess with shorts when you can do similar things with puts. I think the market is strongly overreacting to an OK report from AMD. If AMD was up, the put is still a nice insurance policy if you are long, particularly if you bought a put with a lengthy expiration. >> The short in this case wasn't too risky IMO, there had been a big run up (15%) over the past 2 days on no news. The earnings report looked like it was going to be horrid going into it. The report was basically a warning on earnings for next quarter, and puts AMD firmly behind Intel on the roadmaps. AMD has a history of always tanking after earnings anyway, so I think these things add up to AMD tanking the next day regardless. I certainly couldn't see it moving up any substantial amount, and if it stayed the same he could have just bailed on the short anyway. I'm sure glad I sold at $15.21 yesterday, I just wish I had bought the april puts I was considering. Ahh well, maybe I'll buy back in if we see single digits, but I'm probably going to avoid AMD until the hammer is released, and then only if it gives them a huge boost. (similar to athlon vs k6-2).