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Technology Stocks : Advanced Micro Devices - Moderated (AMD) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: 5dave22 who wrote (77642)	4/18/2002 12:34:05 PM
From: Road Walker	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 275872

Dave, How do you mean "hedge" with Intel shares? If you mean going long INTC & holding AMD, I don't think you are hedging, I think you are exposing yourself to additional market risk. Once yesterdays information is priced into AMD, it should start to trade in concert with Intel again. I think AMD should find it's proper level, based on the information from yesterday, pretty quickly. Probably next week. I don't expect it to go up in the next few trading days, do you? You might want to sell now and buy back next week, if you think the longer term prospects are good. A good short term hedge would have been to buys some AMD puts yesterday. The April 15's were only ~.40, for about 2.5% you could have protected yourself almost dollar for dollar. Easy to say this morning. As far as Intel, I think it will perform with the $SOX. If you look at the $SOX, it's been essentially flat since December 2000 (with the 9/11 interruption). - stockcharts.com[w,a]waolyyay[pb50!b200][vc60][iUp14,3,3]&pref=G - I expect a cyclical recovery pretty soon, when I don't know. I thought it would have started by now, so my opinion is probably worth what you just paid for it. John

To: 5dave22 who wrote (77642)	4/18/2002 1:12:29 PM
From: tejek	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 275872

John, instead of selling my current AMD shares, I'm thinking of hedging with some INTC shares. A little nervous in the current economy. What are your thoughts? TIA Dave, I am unclear why you would add more tech to your portfolio as a hedge against AMD. A hedge against AMD is diversifying into non tech, not more tech. In the past two years most money made in tech has been on the short side. That's expected to continue for at least another 3-6 mos since inventory depletion seems to be ongoing and end user demand is not picking up. I suspect AMD's stock will not begin to move again until probably late June, early July if you are lucky and that's in anticipation of Xmas and Hammer. Until then, both Intel and AMD will both be range bound.....something to trade, not hold. ted