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Technology Stocks : Advanced Micro Devices - Moderated (AMD) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Road Walker who wrote (77645)	4/18/2002 1:16:05 PM
From: tejek	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 275872

As far as Intel, I think it will perform with the $SOX. If you look at the $SOX, it's been essentially flat since December 2000 (with the 9/11 interruption). - stockcharts.com[w,a]waol... - I expect a cyclical recovery pretty soon, when I don't know. I thought it would have started by now, so my opinion is probably worth what you just paid for it. John, end user demand, specifically IT spending has not picked up in spite of all the hype re the economic recovery. Until that demand is evident, I think tech will remain flat. In fact, I wasn't surprised the DOW was down 160 earlier today......at the time, I didn't know that a plane had crashed into a blding in Milan; I thought the markets were crashing of their own accord. ted

To: Road Walker who wrote (77645)	4/18/2002 1:35:29 PM
From: 5dave22	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 275872

John, I don't have the capital free to get into options trading. Not until next year - between our move, our first home,a boat, an expensive adoption and my wife's need for a very large tow SUV - I can't put up the $50K that I was told I needed to have liquid. (I think I got that from Schwab) I was thinking of buying about 500 shares of INTC as a hedge - if INTC is to pick up market share again, I think it has the ability to take off again, at least to the mid-to-high $30s. Dave

To: Road Walker who wrote (77645)	4/18/2002 2:02:31 PM
From: that_crazy_doug	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 275872

<< How do you mean "hedge" with Intel shares? If you mean going long INTC & holding AMD, I don't think you are hedging, I think you are exposing yourself to additional market risk. Once yesterdays information is priced into AMD, it should start to trade in concert with Intel again. >> I agree completely. Especially with the state of the SOXX there's no reason to put all your eggs in that basket. As always, I think AMD will have bigger upside then Intel, but also bigger downside, and you'll need a lot more pepto over the next year if you're holding it. << I think AMD should find it's proper level, based on the information from yesterday, pretty quickly. Probably next week. I don't expect it to go up in the next few trading days, do you? You might want to sell now and buy back next week, if you think the longer term prospects are good.>> What is AMD's proper level? I think it's a matter of perception, and it could be explained in such a way the proper level is close to 10 or close to 20 depending which factors you take into account. It really just depends what the street thinks, and if history is any guide, that doesn't bode well. Things aren't nearly as bad as they were in Jan '99, but the stock is getting treated like they are. I don't see any reason to own AMD unless there is proof of a big time flash recovery, or hammer is out and is a huge success. Look at how slow the analysts were to see the writing on the wall with Athlon. It should have been obvious in Oct 99 after the Q3 report that Athlon was going to turn things around at AMD, but the stock didn't see any movement until the breakeven announcement in Dec. I think you could wait for hammer, wait for the benchmarks, and if it looks awesome, jump on board for close to the current price, and if it doesn't look awesome, AMD is probably headed back towards bankruptcy anyway. << I expect a cyclical recovery pretty soon, when I don't know. I thought it would have started by now >> I don't really see anything in the next 6 months to a year that's going to turn things around in the SOXX. I'd expect things to get better at some point, but I also think the biggest growth years are probably already gone, and a SOXX recovery won't push stocks as far or as fast as it would in the past.