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Technology Stocks : Advanced Micro Devices - Moderated (AMD) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: tejek who wrote (77653)	4/18/2002 1:43:13 PM
From: Road Walker	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 275872

Ted, re: John, end user demand, specifically IT spending has not picked up in spite of all the hype re the economic recovery. Until that demand is evident, I think tech will remain flat. I agree. The trick is to be in the market when the next replacement cycle begins. It will be easy to see in the rear view mirror, but a large percent of the stock gains will happen early in the cycle recovery. I think we are close, for several reasons. The normal cycle is three years, and we are nearing the point where all those Y2K PC are three years old, they were purchased from early 1999 through mid-2000 (da bubble). The government has added the incentive of accelerated depreciation, that should help to motivate some companies that could use the deduction. And it appears that the economy, and corporate profits, are at least starting to move in the right direction. So the end users will have a few bucks to spend. What speed processor were they selling in late 1999 (I really don't remember)? Bet those dogs are slow and getting (relatively) slower every day. The other side of the argument is that those PC's will never need to be replaced, that they are good enough for everything most business folks do. If you believe that then both AMD and Intel are hugely expensive stocks. John