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Strategies & Market Trends : Strictly: Drilling II -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: russwinter who wrote (10853)	4/18/2002 7:48:55 PM
From: gold$10k	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 36161

Russ, I think that you have a good idea, but are early. I would wait until the monthly MACD of the Biotech sector turned up and the Bollinger Bands tightened, BWDIK? bigcharts.marketwatch.com Just my 2 cents, vt

To: russwinter who wrote (10853)	4/18/2002 7:53:54 PM
From: Frank Pembleton	Respond to of 36161

Russ -- THANK YOU!!! I posted that Briefing comment with you in mind... and if you wouldn't mind... could you please link me to that original post on biotechs you wrote here a while back? I'm in the process of building a watchlist on this sector (thanks for the tickers) - ...the more these analyst get bearish the more I get interested. MIA (merci in advance) Regards Frank P.

To: russwinter who wrote (10853)	4/18/2002 10:05:15 PM
From: inchingup	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 36161

Russwriter: I have been a follower of IMGN for about 4 years and bought and sold it many times over. One thing I can tell you for certain is that at one time I felt that Dr. Sayre (CEO) was as clean and straightforward as any in the business. My feelings changed drastically about 6 months ago, not only about Sayre, but about IMGN's magic bullet. I have never published on any board what I found out but suffice it to say that once I learned what I did it was unloaded as fast as possible. Although I did not receive insider information I can tell you that from what I do know I don't believe that IMGN is a value at even 7 bucks a share though others may disagree. It certainly could make a short term pop with other Bio's but I wouldn't be buying it at present for any long term gains. I would be extremely careful with IMGN. MLCO didn't dump their shares for no reason. Luckily, I beat them to the draw. Capiche?

To: russwinter who wrote (10853)	4/18/2002 10:39:58 PM
From: jim black	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 36161

Russ, Frank, et al, Mind if I butt in for a remark from one in the business of using the some of the products developed for the biotech business, namely neurology? I have followed this sector peripherally for years and have developed some bias/opinion/pessimism... The average cost for development of a new drug that actually makes it into the body of a patient, according to report from personal friend in a very large! US drug industry player with whom I climbed Mt Kilimanjaro in Africa in 1989, and who is at this time very high in the ranks...500-750 million! Only a small fraction of drug candidates pan out. From an intense professional interest in my specialty I followed a very interesting company a few years back called Cambridge Neurosciences. On paper and in the lab they had a winner for stroke therapy far superior to any then or now available. Stage III trials failed miserably. End of their story. They were a one pony show. Years ago Bill Gates played with quite a few companies in Seattle area and bought at right time and sold at right time one good gamble in ICOS which was a great investment. But please dear cohorts bear in mind that to play in the biotech sector, especially the smaller ones is so close to gambling I personally equate the two. Of the four other biotechs in the Seattle area at the time, not counting Immunex, all failed. Now further FWIW please consider the demographics and the economics constantly on the minds of most on this thread: These problems (demographics and economics, also governmental control) plague the entire biotech sector...drugs are very expensive to make, hence to be worthwhile to drug companies that might buy the product candidates which pass Clinical Testing Stage III for FDA approval, said drugs will be VERY expensive. Who is going to be able to pay??? Remember the sides of the aisle fighting over medicare paying for drug benefits for seniors? Hello! Seniors still scream they want/deserve everything new for little and(... give somewhere take from somewhere else.) Where is that money coming from, and who is going to foot the bill. Will medicare allow the drug to be used? Will the drug make real money, i.e., billion/yr+? We have a war going that is just getting started. It is a war with Islam, though it is not politically correct to state it so in such blunt terms. That has to be paid for too...where does THAT money come from?. Call it terrorism if you want but I'll stick with the name Islam, the name Salman Rushdie used in the London Times. Ssssoooooooo.....! Don't bother about me making the wine go sour, just trying to let you guys/gals think about thinking about the downside of biotech. Hope not to rain on anyone's parade, but this is no child's play and it is your own money? A potential investor needs to know how to read beyond the questionable annual reports and interpret the clinical data from stage I and stage II trials and KNOW that does not always extrapolate to homo sapiens. Caveat emptor and good luck, compadres. Care to pay attention to the biotech Abbey is going to push? on her visit with Louis Ruckheyser? Jim Black

To: russwinter who wrote (10853)	4/19/2002 12:57:04 AM
From: baystock	Respond to of 36161

<Load up the truck on AVAN, CEGE, CRXA, INSM, IDEV, ISIS, MAXM, RZYM, ELN, IMGN, CRGN, HGMI> The only name among these that I am familiar with is ELN. And I agree it is a great buy at current prices. It is a low risk way to play biotech because of their numerous joint ventures with other biotech companies. And because of the beating its stock price has taken of late, it has just as much upside from these levels. I also own some TTP and RBOT and am looking into MOGN which crashed yesterday.