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To: Night Writer who wrote (97234)	4/18/2002 11:30:44 PM
From: Elwood P. Dowd	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 97611

NW: My understanding is that MSFT missed on revs and on the bottom line. CPQ and IBM were holding up well in AHT but tomorrow could be shaky. We get some govt. numbers at 8:30am and tomorrow is options expiration. Nas futures down 7.50 points right now. My guess is tomorrow will be a red day for the markets and HWP/CPQ. El

To: Night Writer who wrote (97234)	4/18/2002 11:32:10 PM
From: Elwood P. Dowd	Respond to of 97611

Compliments of Skep at The Zoo: April 18, 2002 18:40 IDC Says PC Market Remains Soft Despite Improvement Jump to first matched term The Market Is Gaining Momentum But Growth Is Still Below Zero As Commercial Buyers Remain Cautious FRAMINGHAM, Mass., April 18 /PRNewswire/ -- Worldwide PC shipments declined slightly in the first quarter of 2002, reflecting continued pressure on the market. Shipments were down 2.7% year on year and 8.9% sequentially to a total of 31.4 million. Market growth was up relative to a projected decline of 5.4% year on year, consistent with a slowly recovering market. "The good news is that the market is no longer contracting rapidly, and the gains made in the fourth quarter have not evaporated," said Loren Loverde, director of IDC's Worldwide Quarterly PC Tracker. "Nevertheless, we have yet to see key segments return to significant growth. The year-on-year comparison was much easier this quarter but emerging markets are struggling to maintain positive growth, the commercial segment continues to invest cautiously, and consumers will not come back into the market in force until later in the year." Shipments in the United States were nearly on par with a year ago, as the market transitioned from decline to recovery. First quarter shipments were down 0.4% year on year, while a sequential decline of 6.1% was modest compared to the historical average of -10.4%. "We're in slack-water conditions," said Roger Kay, director of Client Computing at IDC. "That period between the tides when the sea is fully out but has not yet come back in. The good news is that the U.S. market has truly reached low tide and is turning around, albeit slowly." In terms of growth, notebooks continue to outpace desktops in the United States. From a segment point of view, consumers displayed a slightly-better-than-normal seasonal purchasing pattern, but commercial buyers are still moving slowly. Regional Outlook: * United States -- Still no growth although the market is improving. Consumer spending held up well for the first quarter, although the market remains quite cautious. We expect the United States to lead as the market recovers. * Europe -- Traditional sequential decline from the fourth quarter. Growth trend is similar to the United States, although more moderate changes in growth. Consumer and commercial buyers remain cautious and are spending on other priorities. * Japan -- Market decline continued in line with expectations. Economic weakness weighed on the market, particularly in the commercial segment. * Asia -- Regional growth remained positive but in the low single digits. Growth in China improved, while the region's second and third largest markets, South Korea and Australia, returned to positive growth. Vendor Highlights: * Dell -- Made solid gains in shipments and market share in all major regions. Dell is competing aggressively in this market transition by leveraging its direct business model in the United States and abroad. * Compaq -- Performed reasonably in light of the merger although growth was below market for both U.S. and international. * HP -- Despite the distraction of merger issues, HP refocused its PC business - growing shipments roughly in line with the market. In the US, HP managed flat growth from a year ago although declines accelerated in Asia. * IBM -- IBM also refocused its U.S. business, particularly in commercial desktops while worldwide growth was slightly behind the market. * Fujitsu -- Fujitsu held onto its home market of Western Europe, but experienced slight declines in Asia. * Gateway -- Held market share in the markets that it has chosen to defend, U. S. consumer and small business segments, as a result of an aggressive price-cutting campaign. Nevertheless, overall shipments were down significantly. Top 5 Vendors, U.S. PC Shipments, First Quarter 2002 (Preliminary) (Units Shipments are in thousands) Q1 2002 Q1 2002 Market Q1 2001 Market Growth Rank Vendor Shipments Share Shipments Share 2002/2001 1 Dell 3,013 28.4 % 2,524 23.7 % 19.4 % 2 Compaq 1,280 12.1 % 1,473 13.8 % -13.1 % 3 Hewlett- 1,086 10.2 % 1,084 10.2 % 0.2 % Packard 4 Gateway 650 6.1 % 923 8.7 % -29.6 % 5 IBM 577 5.4 % 565 5.3 % 2.0 % Others 3,994 37.7 % 4,068 38.2 % -1.8 % All Vendors 10,600 100.0 % 10,638 100.0 % -0.4 % Notes: * Vendor shipments are branded shipments and exclude OEM sales for all vendors and represent shipments to distribution channels or direct to end- users. * Data for all vendors are reported for calendar periods. Source: IDC, April 2002 Top 5 Vendors, Worldwide PC Shipments, Fourth Quarter 2001 (Preliminary) (Units Shipments are in thousands) Q1 2002 Q1 2002 Market Q1 2001 Market Growth Rank Vendor Shipments Share Shipments Share 2002/2001 1 Dell 4,824 15.4 % 4,151 12.9 % 16.2 % 2 Compaq 3,367 10.7 % 3,815 11.8 % -11.8 % 3 Hewlett- 2,340 7.5 % 2,433 7.5 % -3.8 % Packard 4 IBM 1,832 5.8 % 2,025 6.3 % -9.5 % 5 Fujitsu 1,606 5.1 % 1,819 5.6 % -11.7 % Siemens Others 17,390 55.5 % 17,993 55.8 % -3.4 % All Vendors 31,359 100.0 % 32,236 100.0 % -2.7 % Notes: * Vendor shipments are branded shipments and exclude OEM sales for all vendors and represent shipments to distribution channels or direct to end- users. * Data for all vendors are reported for calendar periods. * Data for Fujitsu Siemens includes shipments for Fujitsu and Siemens. Source: IDC, April 2002 IDC's Worldwide Quarterly PC Tracker gathers PC market data in 55 countries by vendor, form factor, brand, processor brand and speed, sales channel and user segment. The research includes historical and forecast trend analysis as well as price band and installed base data. For more information, or to subscribe to the research, please contact Kathy Nagamine at 650-962-6423 or knagamine@idc.com. About IDC IDC is the foremost global market intelligence and advisory firm helping clients gain insight into technology and ebusiness trends to develop sound business strategies. Using a combination of rigorous primary research, in- depth analysis, and client interaction, IDC forecasts worldwide markets and trends to deliver dependable service and client advice. More than 700 analysts in 43 countries provide global research with local content. IDC's customers comprise the world's leading IT suppliers, IT organizations, ebusiness companies, and the financial community. Additional information can be found at www.idc.com. IDC is a division of IDG, the world's leading IT media, research and exposition company. All product and company names may be trademarks or registered trademarks of their respective holders. MAKE YOUR OPINION COUNT - Click Here tbutton.prnewswire.com SOURCE IDC /CONTACT: Loren Loverde, +1-305-351-3115, lloverde@idc.com; or Roger Kay, +1-508-935-4617, rkay@idc.com; both of IDC/ /Company News On-Call: prnewswire.com /Web site: idc.com

To: Night Writer who wrote (97234)	4/18/2002 11:33:19 PM
From: Elwood P. Dowd	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 97611

More from Skep: April 18, 2002 20:39 Gartner Dataquest Says Worldwide PC Market Experienced Flat Growth in First Quarter 2002; U.S. PC Market Showed First Positive Growth in a Year Jump to first matched term SAN JOSE, Calif.--(BUSINESS WIRE)--April 18, 2002--After consecutive quarters of negative growth in the worldwide and U.S. PC market, shipment totals in the first quarter of 2002 showed flat growth in the worldwide market and slight growth in the U.S. market, according to preliminary results from Dataquest Inc., a unit of Gartner, Inc. (NYSE: IT and ITB). Worldwide PC shipments totaled 32.7 million units in the first quarter of 2002, or flat in growth terms over the same period last year (see Table 1). PC shipments in the United States reached 11.1 million units, a 2.3 percent increase from the previous year. "First quarter 2002 growth rates are based upon weak market performances in the same quarter a year ago and therefore, despite the apparently better growth rate figures, in reality, both the U.S. and worldwide markets remain sluggish," said Charles Smulders, vice president of Gartner Dataquest's Computing Platforms Worldwide group. "At best, these numbers suggest the market is returning to more normal seasonal growth patterns, but with little evidence of return to growth in the large accounts segment, the market outlook for 2002 remains highly uncertain." While all of the other top tier vendors experienced negative growth, Dell remained the No. 1 vendor worldwide in the first quarter of 2002, growing 13.7 percent and increasing its market share lead through robust desk-based PC growth. Table 1 Preliminary Worldwide PC Vendor Unit Shipment Estimates for 1Q02 (Thousands of Units) ---------------------------------------------------------------------- 1Q02 1Q02 Market 1Q01 1Q01 Market Shipments Share (%) Shipments Share (%) Growth (%) Company ---------------------------------------------------------------------- Dell 4,684 14.3 4,119 12.6 13.7 Compaq 3,308 10.1 3,765 11.5 -12.1 Hewlett-Packard 2,340 7.1 2,410 7.4 -2.9 IBM 1,836 5.6 2,026 6.2 -9.3 NEC 1,253 3.8 1,505 4.6 -16.7 Others 19,320 59.0 18,909 57.8 2.2 Total Market 32,742 100.0 32,733 100.0 0.0 ---------------------------------------------------------------------- Note: Data includes desk-based PCs, mobile PCs and PC servers. Source: Gartner Dataquest (April 2002) In the U.S. PC market, Dell continued to gain market share, primarily in the desktop segment. Dell's total U.S. market share increased to 26.3 percent, which was bigger than the shares of the No. 2 and No. 3 vendors combined (see Table 2). Driven by double-digit growth in the mobile PC market, Hewlett-Packard also had positive growth in the first quarter of 2002. "One bright spot for now is the U.S. home mobile PC market, which continues to show robust growth," said Martin Reynolds, vice president and research fellow for Gartner. "There appears to be a notable difference in the buying habits of desktops and notebooks in terms of channel. Users purchasing patterns suggest a preference to buy desktops through the direct channel, but notebooks through retail. This seems related to a customer's wish to 'touch and feel' notebook products before buying, as well as the current aggressive pricing available through retail. This could create some interesting challenges for the direct vendors." Table 2 Preliminary U.S. PC Vendor Unit Shipment Estimates for 1Q02 (Thousands of Units) ---------------------------------------------------------------------- 1Q02 1Q02 Market 1Q01 1Q01 Market Company Shipments Share(%) Shipments Share(%) Growth(%) ---------------------------------------------------------------------- Dell 2,933 26.3 2,523 23.2 16.2 Compaq 1,283 11.5 1,460 13.4 -12.1 Hewlett-Packard 1,086 9.8 1,076 9.9 0.9 Gateway 645 5.8 923 8.5 -30.1 IBM 581 5.2 576 5.3 0.9 Others 4,604 41.4 4,319 39.7 6.6 Total Market 11,132 100.0 10,876 100.0 2.3 ---------------------------------------------------------------------- Note: Data includes desk-based PCs, mobile PCs and PC servers. Source: Gartner Dataquest (April 2002) Gartner Dataquest analysts said there are a significant number of variables that will influence the PC market growth rate in 2002. The current estimate is for worldwide PC shipments to finish the year with a growth rate of 4 percent. "Economic factors and business confidence continue to be major factors influencing PC spending. Global economic prospects appear to have improved significantly over the quarter, making the prospects of a return to buying in the fourth quarter more likely. However, large corporations continue to adopt a wait and see attitude to IT spending, making 2002 an extremely difficult year to predict overall," Smulders said. These results are preliminary. Final statistics will be available soon to clients of Gartner Dataquest's PC Quarterly Statistics Worldwide by Region program. This program offers a comprehensive and timely picture of the worldwide PC market, allowing product planning, distribution, marketing and sales organizations to keep abreast of key issues and their future implications around the globe. To subscribe to this program, please call 408-468-8000. Additional research can be found on Gartner's Hardware and Systems Focus Area on Gartner's Web site at www.gartner.com/1_researchanalysis/focus/hwmkt_fa.html. Gartner Dataquest is the recognized leader in providing the high-technology and financial communities with market intelligence for the semiconductor, computer systems and peripherals, communications, document management, software, and services sectors of the global information technology industry. Gartner, Inc. is a research and advisory firm that helps more than 11,000 clients understand technology and drive business growth. Gartner's divisions consist of Gartner Research, Gartner Consulting, Gartner Measurement and Gartner Events. Founded in 1979, Gartner, Inc. is headquartered in Stamford, Connecticut and consists of 4,300 associates, including 1,200 research analysts and consultants, in more than 90 locations worldwide. The company achieved fiscal 2001 revenue of $952 million. For more information, visit www.gartner.com. CONTACT: Gartner, Inc. Christy Pettey, 408/468-8312 christy.pettey@gartner.com