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Technology Stocks : Siebel Systems (SEBL) - strong buy? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: chojiro who wrote (5782)	4/19/2002 8:22:31 AM
From: chojiro	Respond to of 6974

Public service message. Tom Siebel will be on CNBC with Maria Bartaromo Monday evening at 7 PM.

To: chojiro who wrote (5782)	4/19/2002 10:07:48 AM
From: Mike Buckley	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 6974

chojiro, "What we're seeing is a return to more normal business processes and buying behavior," CEO Thomas Siebel said during a conference call. Unfortunately, that comment was quoted in the article completely out of context. As a result, I believe it's misleading. My recollection is that it was not so much about the volume of capex increasing as much as the decision-making process returning to the norm. In previous quarters when the process was abnormal, decision makers would look Tom in the eye, shake his hand, tell him they would do a deal with him that quarter, and ultimately not do the deal with anyone. "We're quite optimistic about 2002 based on what we're seeing." That was the fact. His management team was optimistic insofar as the return to a normal business process. Though the economic environment in Q1 turned out to be, by his admission in this week's conference call, much worse than he or the team expected, he didn't suggest that the decison-making process had returned to the abnormal symptoms of last year. He also didn't suggest that the abnormal symptons were not apparent. As a result, my take is that we can't conlclude much about that. Can you provide some links to where Tom as "consistently negatively biased"? I think his conference calls over a period of about a year were negatively biased. He repeatedly made the point stressing his opinion that the U. S. was in a recession and that the data would ultimately confirm his impression. More important for me than any thoughts about whether or not Tom had (has) a bias and whether or not it has proved to be correct, is that he has consistently been saying that recessions are a fact of life and that the business process at Siebel Systems deals with recessions effectively. --Mike Buckley