To: stockman_scott who wrote (26077 ) 4/19/2002 12:44:37 PM From: Win Smith Respond to of 281500 For all their criticism of American zigzagging, Mr Bush's European critics need to recognise that this is a president improvising responses to a baffling crisis. It would be wrong to confuse his immediate plan to achieve quiet—by piling pressure on Mr Arafat to call off the intifada—with his longer-term thinking. Mr Bush has, after all, spent the past weeks stating more plainly than any predecessor that America wants an independent Palestine and Israel back more or less to its 1967 border. Maybe, but what W wants to or can do next is quite unclear. I would cross-reference this with the local foreign policy journalism guru-in-chief:My gut take is that [Warren's] analysis is based at least as much on wishful thinking as inside dope. That is, I doubt the administration actually has such a carefully worked out plan and/or will be able to stick to it in the way the author suggests. My sense is that they're winging it more than they, or their supporters, would like to admit. I cut them some slack on this, however, because the problem is so difficult that nobody has any good answers to it. As far as I can tell, everybody--in both Israel and America--is flying blind on this one. Don't know enough about what's going on in the Arab or Palestinian camps to judge whether they know what they're doing either, but I doubt it. #reply-17232320 In addition to the points in the Economist editorial about the improbability of US pressure on Israel, I'd again refer back to a historical regional analogy, Lebanon '82. US jawboning then was totally ineffective, almost laughably so. It's hard to say if that operation was more or less ugly than the current one. I sure hope that whatever W comes up with as a US followup, it's better than what was done then. The really grim thing about Lebanon '82, I don't know what Sharon's end game plan was there to start with, I assume a Phalangist government or something. What actually happened is pretty clear: Syria ended up in de facto control of Lebanon. I wouldn't guess what Sharon's end game plan in the West Bank is, either, but I got my doubts that it will fit very well with "an independent Palestine and Israel back more or less to its 1967 border."