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To: reaper who wrote (161009)	4/19/2002 3:39:47 PM
From: Joan Osland Graffius	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 436258

reper, >> don't think that the bull market in bonds (govies) is over I am trying to manage some of my assets based on your assumption. IMO, for this to happen we must have slow or nil economic activity with destruction of capital coming from our great American corporations and consumers. Certainly do not think this is out of the question, in fact believe there is a 50-50 chance of this occurrence. If history is any lesson - i.e. bubble bursts you will be correct. What I don’t like about TIP’s is the US government is hiding inflation through their evaluation. I am using foreign debt instruments and South African Gold companies to hedge inflation. Joan

To: reaper who wrote (161009)	4/19/2002 3:50:03 PM
From: yard_man	Respond to of 436258

what is commodity inflation? our currency being valued less than before in terms of the commodity? I honestly don't think you can generalize or extrapolate trends of the past five to ten years. Costs of production are subject to a lot of different input factors, but one big one is energy. Long term -- increasing costs in energy can only increase commodity costs (now this is long term -- not 2 - 3 years), but in the smaller time periods almost anything can happen. All this talk of the cost side and very little about demand and supply. Maybe it is just taken as a given that the looming economic slowdown will slake demand in commodities?? I'm not so sure that is necessarily true ... A 20% devaluation of the dollar vs other currencies if it happened in a short period of time would drive rates on govvies well above 6%. What do you do with foreign owners who will dump -- who is gonna absorb that if the buck does break?? I think you are fading some smart people there ...