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Strategies & Market Trends : The New Economy and its Winners -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: schrodingers_cat who wrote (11165)	4/20/2002 5:06:21 PM
From: Lizzie Tudor	Respond to of 57684

Well, in enterprise software things were apparently good in january but towards the end of the quarter the deal signoffs just weren't happening. And they are backend loaded so given that Sebl, etc. MADE their numbers that means march must have been really, really bad. There are some company specific stuff related to post-bubble management issues. I2 for example, their problems are company specific, related to overexpansion. Supply chain is ok, same with CRM domestically. (Tom said Germany was going into a recession in his cc). I don't think its enron, software doesn't do too much funny books stuff and the few that were creative like psft already cleaned it up. Manu has a little work to do, admittedly. Just an inability to get money out of customers for software, the old fashioned dilemma. So thats what happened, now what? is the question. Good news- -stocks way off highs, sebl around 25 down 30% from recent highs. -chip sector really hot and buying a bunch of software. I met some friends from applied materials last night, they are firing on all cylinders. No wonder Morgan split the stock. They have a bunch of businesses doing well, one division is flat panel stuff which they are projecting will replace almost all CRTs in any device one day... thats not a niche. - pent up demand, Companies haven't bought anything for 2+ years and in the case of big apps, that means many are still on the old "fat client" model since webapps are mostly post-2000 - jobs in monster even for hurting companies like i2, there weren't any a month ago. - msft had a strong quarter in enterprise software sales. Got to give credit where credit is due. Msft the strongest y/y comparisons in enterprise. So there is some good news on the horizon for software. I think at these levels for the strong companies like manu and sebl who are on a new product cycle its a buy (sebl 25ish, manu 17.5 ish). People here like merq and they are doing really well but I don't know the stock, think its a buy though. Psft not on a new product cycle so I'd avoid for now, they aren't going to get the upgrade cycle that sebl will. Orcl, vrts infrastructure, I guess you have to avoid until the orcl numbers give us a sense of whats going on. You can really bottom fish in software at least and its a little more comforting of a sector, vs. say comm. (although I have some comm too). I see the manu ceo sold 200K stock so if it dips on monday I might buy a little. L