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To: yard_man who wrote (161178)	4/21/2002 11:50:40 AM
From: orkrious	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 436258

but it is coming soon and it will be dramatic ... no slow slide into oblivion. It'll fall off a cliff. I disagree, although near the end it may feel like it. I think it has already started. Here's some anecdotal evidence. I live in the Detroit suburbs and got engaged in January 2001. My wife and I lived four miles apart in the same nice (but not the nicest) city. I knew what was coming to the housing market but she didn't believe me. Our objective was to sell her $400k house and live in my $200k condo until the housing market cracked and we could get a house in Birmingham, the nicest but most egregiously priced suburb, at a less than outrageous price. She only listened to me a little when in April 2001 she listed her house for $420k. She wanted $430k, I suggested $399k for a quick sale before everyone realized what I knew, the RE market was going to suck. We were getting married in August 2001 so by July she was getting nervous and cut the price to $399k. In early August she turned down a $370k offer, which I told her would likely be her best. Then 9/11 came and the market, after having been slow, died. We got a $353k offer two months ago and we took it. Since then, with Spring here things have picked up. Some houses are selling, but many are still sitting. By the end of the summer, people whose houses have been on the market since last year are going to be panicking. The sub $250k market has stayed relatively strong. The Birmingham market has weakened a little, but there is much more inventory then there used to be. Prices have come down a little, but Birmingham houses are still selling, just more slowly. People think Birmingham houses are still "great investments." My guess is this is a story that will play out repeatedly over the coming months. Many middle areas will die. Then the same thing will happen in the high end, as people realize that it does matter what they pay. Finally, when everyone realizes there is truly a problem, the low end will die too. It will happen slowly, In fact, it is already happening slowly. It is starting in areas of the country like Detroit, and it is spreading. We all know that the January housing numbers were bogus "seasonally adjusted." Since then, they have begun to slow. The March numbers were bad, down 7%, but is was explained away because January and February were so strong. Last month's "new permits" numbers sucked too. There is no question it has already started, and it is spreading. ork