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Technology Stocks : Disk Drive Sector Discussion Forum -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Z Analyzer who wrote (9127)	4/22/2002 2:40:28 PM
From: Tom Simpson	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 9256

Bull case.....it takes a sense of history to see the case here. HTCH is in a niche, with dominent market share, 50-70% range of arguement. Capital intensive business, big fixed capacity costs, very sensitive to unit volumes. If and when unit volumes move up, earnings get a whole lot better with astonishing speed. Been through that cycle 3 times in the last 10 years or so. So I track price/book, price/sales, unit volumes, and cash flow. Those guide covered call writing and hopefully will have me naked when unit volumes finally start growing again. Its a lot of work to make a buck and this extended period of high growth in density (MR-GMR) has been most unkind to suspension unit volume growth. I severely underestimated its duration. Why has price been running up? Beats me, looking at my metrics it ought to be between 18-20 so its time for me to assess taking profits on old options and rolling into new ones :o) In which thread is it that you discuss Russian oils? Best Regards........Tom