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To: limtex who wrote (116952)	4/21/2002 3:21:00 PM
From: Jim Willie CB	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 152472

we bought our way out of the recession in 2001 at first many called it a depression then later it wasnt even a recession I am cheerful, but not about the economy or stocks I am hugely optimistic about gold/silver, oil/gas in mid-2001, the real estate market was refuge for bubble price/earnings ratios are now higher than previous 1986 peak great Barrons feature article on the sector so many believe that the currency cancer being spread worldwide into the Global Economy can be cured by more Fed liquidity continued Fed infusions only forestall the recession the cancer is uncontrolled Fed money printing it started in August 1997 in Thailand it found its way to US shores in 2000 it hasnt gone away the "recession that wasnt" was delayed by two things - 20% Money Supply infusion in 2001 - AlQaeda attack on Sept11th, with another 10% MZM spurt the recession was delayed, NOT avoided you cannot cure a currency cancer with Fed currency printing the Fed recently has cut down Money Supply growth in March the recession follows soon perhaps even before the Fed raises rates this year stls.frb.org are you aware that the 10-yr TNote yield is higher now than it was when the Fed started its rate cuts in Jan2001 ?????????????????????????? this represents a repudiation of Federal Reserve Insanity I call them the Dept of Inflation they cannot inflate their way out of this mess and now they have stopped inflating GreenFlation is scared shitless now of creating inflation the longbond yield rose this week again in response to his stated reluctance to raise rates anytime soon he now risks inflation but it wont be economy-wide, as in the past it will be inflation concentrated in commodities in particular, oil/gas and gold/silver the trends are very clear with OIX/OIH and XAU/HUI indexes water stocks outperformed 90% of Naz stocks last year!!! I believe fundamental macro-economics are far more important now than contra-indicators and confidence measures / jim