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Technology Stocks : Nokia (NOK) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: kech who wrote (19747)	4/21/2002 8:46:40 PM
From: Eric L	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 34857

Tom, << I agree that capacity is also gained only with sale of 1x handsets but these systems, say Sprint and Verizon, aren't stretched now. >> Im many areas they are not, but neither is AWS, which is why AWS scores so well in the JD Powers surveys. Having said that, both AWS and Cingular (different story than AWS from a spectrum point of view) will be stretched as they migrate, but spectrum rich AWS, with great network engineers, has planned relatively carefully, has chosen superb vendors, and is executing their implementation well. Technology migrations are not easy. US Cellular will find that out. GAIT handsets are a tremendous boon, to ease the migration for AWS, Cingular, Rogers, and Telecel and all the other squandered cdma opportunities in the spectrum constrained Americas . << Also 1x handsets have been going on the market now since October. >> Right. PCS claims 1 million sold. Verizon maybe has moved maybe 20% of that with one model. Remember how easy the 1xRTT migration was going to be? What an absolute fairy tale. There is not one single 1xRTT data enabled handset in the Americas today. Why? You are by the way talking about a blip in time. AWS has just barely started to market GSM. They will crank up early 2003 when they complete phase 1 (100% coverage in all 1900 MHz POPs). Essentially they have no base to replace. It will (virtually) all be AMR. Not much different for Cingular (starting later) in the 11 networks that formerly were (still are) IS-136. Face it old friend, from SKT to KTF to AWS to Cingular, to Rogers, to Telcel, to Vodafone, China Mobil, and TIM ... ... the cdma2000 migration path has little appeal. Platform, solutions (like GAIT, like AMR, like AMR WB), rich and robust services, robust and detailed standards, open architecture, economies of scale ... name your poison ... cdma technology adoption sucks. Meanwhile, (putting my Qualcomm hat back on here on the Nokia thread) let's hope Qualcomm's earnings are good and likewise forward guidance. Best, - Eric -