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Strategies & Market Trends : Stock Attack II - A Complete Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: ajtj99 who wrote (34564)	4/22/2002 12:34:26 PM
From: TechTrader42	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 52237

There could be a rally in the short term, ajtj99. The Naz CI's are not at the extreme high point. There's some divergence with the Naz ST CI and the Naz composite today. Maybe the semiconductor data due out later today will trigger a bounce. And then again, maybe not. (Who knows and who cares?) Since the LT CI's remain so overbought, my longer-term outlook is that the market could continue to head down (with the inevitable bounces). And my outlook could be wrong. (Since I'm not banking on my outlook, it doesn't matter whether I'm wrong or not.) The emphasis in some quarters on whether the "bearish" or "bullish" perspective is correct is tiresomely moronic. The market moves up and down. Whether one is "bullish" or "bearish" is irrelevant. The market will go where it goes, despite traders' deeply held views. The only certain thing is that "a sure thing is a dangerous thing." There's a loud contingent on SI that wants to brand everyone with "bullish" or "bearish" labels. Anyone who expresses the view that the market might just fall by a point or more one day in the future is branded a bear, maybe because the branded (and burned) bulls are so consumed with anxiety over their longer-term holds. The bullish view seems to be that no matter how many times bottom-fishing fails to identify the bottom, all will be well in several months when stocks finally rally strongly. Presumably, stops aren't being used. A lot of the confidence expressed seems to be rooted in anxiety -- kedogenous TA, ya know, based on worry. Sometimes, when the bottom gives way, determinedly bullish traders double up. I go along with Dickson Watts on this: "Never double up. ... This may occasionally succeed, but is very hazardous." Should one turn out to be wrong, "complete demoralization ensues," he says. He advises trading "moderately, cautiously, thus keeping the judgment clear and preserving the balance of the mind." The bearish view is just as irrelevant. There will be bounces, and in lots of cases, they'll be strong enough to shake out the overly confident short-sellers. People should try turning charts on their sides if they're incapable of separating up and down from right and wrong, good and bad. Brand yourself a bull or a bear and you'll get burned. "Fools try to prove that they are right. Wise men try to find when they are wrong," ole man Watts said. And: "Vehemence is a sign of weakness." And: "None so blind as those who are sure they see."