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To: Gottfried who wrote (265)	4/22/2002 1:20:34 PM
From: Jacob Snyder	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 13403

CSCO buy/sell plan: The fundamentals have turned for this company, and they are steadily pulling ahead in telcom-equip. The picture is getting steadily clearer, that Cisco is going to be the LastManStanding, and clean up in their target markets. More and more, NT and LU look like the Walking Dead. So, I think it is, finally, time to start thinking about re-accumulating the LT CSCO position I sold in 1999. Not that I will entirely stop selling the rallies, just that I will be somewhat more willing to hold what I buy on the dips. Valuations will still, in this stock and the overall market, put a ceiling on any rallies. Currently holding CSCO lots I bought at 14.4-15.0 on the previous dip (as posted then, I sold all my higher-cost lots at a nice profit in the just-dead rally). I'm trying to decide at what point I start buying the current dip. 14.5, probably. Each purchase will be 3% of my portfolio, and I'll buy every $0.50 increment on down, once I start buying. Valuations are getting reasonable. Not in Value territory, but no longer absurd. I ignore forward and trailing 12 month numbers, as these are trough numbers. I'll use 2003. My guesses are $0.50 EPS for calendar year 2003 (.11, .12, .13, .14 for the 4 quarters beginning with 2FQ03). I don't want to get into (another) debate about Creative Accounting; but I think it's not-unreasonable to expect investors to be using those numbers to value CSCO in 2003. In 1995 (last non-Bubble year), the PE range was 22-47. Then: low end of reasonable range: 22 X 0.50 = 11 stock price. high end of reasonable range: 47 X 0.50 = 23.5 stock price. Yes, I know, the 22-47 range uses trailing EPS, and my 0.50 is a guess on year+ forward earnings (or perhaps it would be better to say "earnings"). Still, I think investors are currently valuing techs on 2003 "earnings" expectations, and will continue to do so. Notice, 11-23 is the horizontal range this stock has been doing a random walk within, since March 2001 (13 months, for this bottoming formation). So maybe the market is using the same yardstick I am, on this stock, and coming to the same conclusions. Maybe all the Exuberance is, finally, squeezed out of this stock (at 11, I mean).