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Strategies & Market Trends : John Pitera's Market Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Jacob Snyder who wrote (5989)	4/22/2002 5:39:01 PM
From: John Pitera	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 33421

Hi Jacob, good comments. An encouraging sign, which needs to be confirmed by setting an intermediate-term bottom well above the 9/01 lows. Maybe on the rally after the upcoming bottom, we can stay above the 200DMA It will be interesting to see if the time that the SPX has stayed above the 200 DMA, as well as the relative strength of the RUT, S&P 600 and the advance decline line have been giving headfakes to the bulls in what will turn out to be a bigger longer multi year secular bear market. Or are we in fact seeing evidence of underlying internal improvement which occurs towards the end of a bear market and the start of a new bull market. The SPX gained 21% during 1991 at the start of the last bull market, yet corporate earnings fell 17% during that year. Clearly Earnings are a lagging indicator. Stocks lead and earnings follow. The real issue for me is do we see no meaningful 6 to 9 month or longer rally phase before all of the valuation, debt, and quality of earnings inaccuracies all are purged from the markets? John