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To: Moominoid who wrote (36631)4/22/2002 1:41:23 PM
From: Paul Shread  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 209892
 
As far as I know, the lowest point of the mid-term year of the four-year cycle has held for at least the next four years in every four-year cycle since 1930 (1934, 1938, 1942 ... 1990, 1994, 1998). In other words, if the Dow's low this year is broken before 2006, it would be the first time since 1930 that that has happened. The 1987 crash did not undercut the 1986 low, which was just under 1500.

Since administrations tend to goose the economy in the third and fourth years of the cycle, it would be one more bit of evidence that the U.S. has entered a liquidity trap, IMHO.



To: Moominoid who wrote (36631)4/22/2002 2:02:30 PM
From: At_The_Ask  Read Replies (3) | Respond to of 209892
 
It must be rally time because all three indexes look terrible to me. There are some declining wedgelike formations all around. The possibility that they resolve to the downside would be terribly bearish. semi book to bill will probably call the tune for tomorrow. Thats a coin toss as to how it's recieved. I'm position short for now. I can see three or four bearish outcomes and only one bullish possibility in the form of an island reversal.


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