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To: Cary Salsberg who wrote (267)	4/22/2002 2:56:00 PM
From: Jacob Snyder	Respond to of 13403

Thanks, Cary. I really think you need a bit of diversification. Your 8 stocks are in similar or identical sectors, and all go up or down together. And all are volatile. You need to think about biotechs or mobile-home builders or timber companies (I'm looking at the recently-suggested PCL). Something that will zig when ALTR zags. I'll be happy, and consider that my crystal ball isn't too badly cracked, if my $0.50-in-2003 guess is ballpark right. And if my guess that the 1995 PE range is reasonable, is ballpark right. And that investors accept "earnings", as opposed to earnings. <<"LastManStanding" is not sufficient reason to invest.>> For me, it is, if, in addition, I think (and I do) that: 1. it's still a growth industry. LT, I mean. Not this year, maybe not next year either, but eventually. Someone will come up with some KillerApp, and bringing it to customers will require installing a lot of new telecom-equip. And whoever survives the ongoing telecom disaster will have the cash flow and pricing power and borrowing ability to buy that telecom-equip from Cisco. Eventually; and I'm prepared to wait, once I'm completely convinced the Bear Market is over. 2. it's still a non-commodity market. Today, nobody has pricing power, because of all the LU and CSCO and NT boxes on sale on Ebay. But this is inherently a temporary situation. Like all semi-equip gluts. 3. I can justify the valuation 4. I see a bottoming formation on the chart. <<I don't know why you think CSCO is "steadily pulling ahead". >> Looks to me like Cisco will likely, 5 (or more likely 10) years from now, have the market share in telecom-equip that AMAT has in semi-equip. Their major competitors in this very large sector, are getting hurt so badly, they will come out of this vicious downturn permanently damaged, and be unable to take advantage of the sector recovery. Tech sectors tend to be "winner-take-all", one company sweeping up most of the available profits. And I really don't see any other company that can unseat Cisco from taking and holding that position. Do you? JNPR is just too small. Investors (and, more to the point, telecom execs who make equip-buying decisions) are questioning the LT viability of LU. Anybody with a load of debt is going to continue to have that uncertainty, about whether they are going to be around in 5 years to upgrade and service their equipment. Those questions lead to the decision to buy Cisco boxes, at a premium price.