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To: Cary Salsberg who wrote (268)	4/22/2002 3:26:23 PM
From: Jacob Snyder	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 13403

OT: CSCO, EMC, JDSU = IBM?? As I understand it, IBM stalled, because of a fundamental shift in where the growth in the tech sector was. PCs replaced mainframes, and IBM was too wedded to it's successful mainframe business, to make the shift. That was why IBM hasn't been as good an investment, as MSFT and Intel, since that shift happened. This is always a risk, for any successful tech company, of any size. The ground can always shift under your feet. A successful investor in tech has to stay alert, and watch for the warnings signs. In the past, you've said that EMC, JDSU, (and CSCO, too, I think you've said) couldn't justify current valuations, because you thought their market was becoming commoditized. Or did too much Creative Accounting. Reasonable worries. But I don't see where an IBM analogy fits into your previous worries, unless it's another new-and-different worry, to add to the list. You can delete EMC from my favorites-list. I'll be holding NTAP as my storage play, and looking for an opportunity to get out of EMC. NTAP is "smaller and simpler", and its valuation isn't any sillier than XLNX or AMAT, how come you don't like it? Gross margins 62% (who else can say that, today?). Sales look to be at their inflection point, very pretty balance sheet, no Creative Accounting or skeletons-in-the-closet (nothing like Cisco's inventory, or JDSU's book value, or LU's vendor financing, and we would have heard by now). I think, with EMC, the IBM analogy fits. EMC is wedded to SAN, and the storage world is going elsewhere, and EMC isn't displaying the nimbleness necessary to move with it's market. I was wrong, and I'm going to cut my losses and move on.