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To: Les H who wrote (1806)	4/22/2002 2:49:26 PM
From: Les H	Respond to of 29597

sentiment traders-talk.com

To: Les H who wrote (1806)	4/22/2002 9:11:51 PM
From: Les H	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 29597

What to expect now. April 23, 2002. Ord. The downtick readings did not surpass 547 with the S&P down over 17 points today. Normally big declines like today's produce high downtick readings. We take today's action as a bearish sign. The "Total Market new high/new low" indicator is still above 200 and in the sell area. The median VIX reading over the last 200-day's is near 27 and today's close (closed at 21.72) is far below the norm and a very bearish sign for intermediate term. We haven't got the final figures yet, but the Summation Index on the SPX appeared to have rolled over to the downside and implies the intermediate term trend has turned down again. There is support at the previous low made on April 15. We don't know if that low will be broken this time down or the next but it will be broken. We are holding our short on the SPX. In candlestick charting on the NDX a bearish "Dark Cloud Cover" was drawn on April 17. We were hoping for a re-test of the high of April 17 on lighter volume to trigger a short sell. That test did not materialize. There is support on the previous low set on April 11 near the 1320 level on the NDX and may hesitate there for a short while. Because the "Nasdaq new high/new low" ratio is above 125 and in a sell area, we expect the low of April 11 low to be broken soon. We don't know if that low will be broken this time down on the next. If there is a bounce off the 1320 level and attempts to rally to fill today's gap, we will look to short that bounce. The Summation Index appears to be rolling over to the downside on the Nasdaq and is a bearish intermediate term sign. We are flat for the moment, but if there is a bounce off the recent low of 1320, we will look for the next sell signal. The Weekly and months charts on the XAU remain bullish. The monthly charts imply Gold is in a powerful "wave 3" up in Elliott Wave terms. Short term a consolidation may have started that could last a couple of months. A bearish short-term pattern called an "Upthrust" may have occurred on April 2. The test of the "Upthrust" came on April 18 and another one came today. We are bullish for the longer term, but the short term is showing signs the XAU is running into resistance. If a pull back does materialize on the XAU, there is support near the 60.75 level. ASA has support near 26 - 27. We have done some new studies on HL. There really is no significant resistance until HL get up near 3.60 level, which is the 1997 and 1998 highs. We are long HL at 1.40 and holding. Drooy has resistance near 4.00 and support near 3.00. AEM has resistance near 20 and support near 11.25. marketweb.com