To: Alomex who wrote (141775 ) 4/23/2002 9:07:10 AM From: H James Morris Respond to of 164684 >>Amazon may flex its sales in report But quarterly figures today likely won't show a profit Tuesday, April 23, 2002 By KATHY MULADY SEATTLE POST-INTELLIGENCER REPORTER Free shipping, discounts on books and other merchandise, and a developing international business could add up to stronger sales when Amazon.com reports its results for the first quarter of its fiscal year today. Although Amazon isn't expected to report a profit as it did in the fourth quarter of fiscal year 2001, some analysts are expecting a strong showing today when Amazon announces its earnings after the markets close. The Seattle Internet retailer has told Wall Street to expect net sales for the quarter to be between $775 million and $825 million, growing as much as 18 percent compared with the first quarter of last year. The company also said that it expects pro forma losses from operations somewhere between break-even to $16 million in the first quarter. In January, Amazon introduced "super-saver" shipping -- free shipping on certain orders over $99. Amazon executives said the shipping deal could be costly for the company in the short term, but it is expected to boost sales in the long term. "Shipping is going to be interesting," said Dan Geiman, an analyst with McAdams, Wright, Ragen. "I think we are going to see some encouraging signs. "Aided by the free shipping promotion, and just more people online, Amazon could do fairly well this quarter," he added. Others agree. "We expect both the top line and bottom line to beat expectations and come in near the high end of company guidance," said Jeffrey Fieler, an analyst at Bear Stearns. A survey of 18 analysts by Nelson Information, a division of Thompson Financial, shows an expected quarterly loss per share ranging from 7 cents to 12 cents, with an average loss of about 9 cents per share. The first quarter isn't a time when retailers usually "rock and roll," according to Scott Smallman, managing director of investments for U.S. Bancorp Piper Jaffray. But he, too, is optimistic that Amazon will report a good quarter. It's even possible, he said, that Amazon might be able to pull out a small pro forma operating profit in the first quarter. "We expect the top line to be better than the Street expects," Smallman said. "We think free shipping has led to higher-average-order sizes." Early last year, Amazon switched from its "get big fast" strategy to a leaner, more efficient approach to business, focusing on producing a profit in the fourth quarter -- which it did. To help make ends meet, the company laid off 1,300 employees, and closed a call center and a distribution center. After making good on its promise of a fourth-quarter profit, exuberant executives in January set new goals including reaching free cash flow, and being ultracompetitive on prices. Improved productivity allowed the company to lower prices on books late last year and could lead to more competitive pricing on other merchandise, said Warren Jenson, Amazon's chief financial officer. But he might not be around to tally those bigger sales next year. Jenson, who helped lead the company to profitability, said last month that he is leaving the company to "move on to a new set of challenges." In the past 18 months, Amazon has opened two new international divisions, in Japan and France, in addition to its existing overseas operations in the United Kingdom and Germany. According to Amazon's annual report for 2001, international sales grew 74 percent in 2001. More than a quarter of the company's sales came from outside the United States. "International is one of their few real growth areas; it will be interesting to see if it maintains that pace," Geiman said.seattlepi.nwsource.com