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Strategies & Market Trends : VOLTAIRE'S PORCH-MODERATED -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Jill who wrote (50365)	4/22/2002 3:16:08 PM
From: stockman_scott	Respond to of 65232

Despite the fact that the broad market averages have been declining for about a month, and the fact that equity-only put-call ratios are on sell signals, and the fact that volatility made a bottom, and the fact that market breadth keeps getting overbought, the bullish story receives a lot more "press" than the bearish story. In fact, this week's big rally on Tuesday was so gleefully greeted on CNBC that I'm surprised they weren't dancing on the set. By the way, who was it that was so anxious to buy that they couldn't do it surreptitiously buying into declines from bearish sellers -- rather that just splattering money all over the tape? They certainly can't be too happy with their prices. We haven't been wildly bearish, but have been buying put spreads on sell signals and generally refusing to chase things on the upside. This approach has worked fairly well, but I think we're at a more important crossroads now. $OEX has worked itself into a corner -- literally the corner of a triangle that is containing prices (see Figure 1). $OEX is trapped between support at 545 and resistance offered by the downward slope of the trend line. Something has got to give soon. A penetration upward through the trend line may not be a major breakout (the market could still go somewhat sideways even after breaking through the trend line). However, a breakdown below 545 would be significant and would generate some follow-through selling. It is worth noting, though, that other indices are not as precariously perched on support as $OEX is. For example, $SPX is at 1120, and its support level is well below that price -- at 1080. So, a breakdown in $OEX may not take the whole market with it, but it certainly wouldn't be a positive development. optionstrategist.com

To: Jill who wrote (50365)	4/22/2002 3:19:40 PM
From: Jim Willie CB	Respond to of 65232

gold must be viewed as a currency not a topshelf distant weird topic it is a last resort currency gold has outperformed every major currency for 16 months as currencies are compared, they must be versus gold without tether to gold, we have much more choppy financial seas hotmoney can come and go quickly we get quick expansion then disappearance of money e.g. Thailand 1997 (Asian Meltdown) we get prolonged chronic expansion to finance debts e.g. USA 1975-2002 the ebb & flow of untethered currency creates storms I expect a monster is coming with the USDollar correction gold is the historical fallback currency it will continue to outperform all majors for a while imho only trouble is.... silver is gold's little brother and the world is close to totally depleted in silver it has been regulated on price, insanely, criminally it will continue to be controlled in price until all gone / jim