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Strategies & Market Trends : Zeev's Turnips - No Politics -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Zeev Hed who wrote (54488)	4/22/2002 4:58:43 PM
From: Steve Lee	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 99280

Not only an assured win for Chirac but a landslide enabling him to have a very powerful term in office. I don't agree this was a factor though. The Euro hardly moved against the dollar today as evidence of this. I have no doubt that today's poor showing on the NDX was due to ERICY mainly and maybe WCOM too. Seeing how those two stocks were decimated today demonstrates that their unsurprising guidance was indeed a massive surprise to most investors.

To: Zeev Hed who wrote (54488)	4/22/2002 4:58:45 PM
From: jjstingray	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99280

So Zeev, are you looking for a "better bottom" to deploy a higher percentage of your cash? 1700 or so, or is your 1607 number the deployment area?

To: Zeev Hed who wrote (54488)	4/22/2002 5:20:11 PM
From: KyrosL	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99280

>>I am trying to understand what changed Here is a list of recent changes that may speed up a retest of the September lows: Fed officials, including Greenspan, signalled they won't be raising interest rates as aggressively as the market expected. They may be afraid of the double dip. Long term interest rates responded by rising -- the bond boyz don't seem to trust the Fed anymore. At the just concluded G7 meeting the US was beat up for its huge trade deficit and its large corporate and consumer indebtedness. The Europeans were pretty smug about the Euro's prospects and were expressing doubts about how long investment flows to the US will continue. Coincidentally, the dollar appears to be losing steam. Greenspan's recent testimony included feeble attempts to deny that a housing bubble exists. It sounded like his denial of a tech bubble, right before that bubble burst. Argentina's mess has taken a turn for the worse. Foreign banks and corporations stand to lose everything invested there. Oil prices, which were supposed to be weakening by now, are instead rising. Iran is making boycott noises. Iraq stopped exports temporarily. It all boils down to a strong possibility of an accelerated double dip, IMO. Kyros

To: Zeev Hed who wrote (54488)	4/22/2002 9:19:24 PM
From: Justa Werkenstiff	Respond to of 99280

Zeev: Re: "I am trying to understand what changed...." Nothing has changed. Le Pen matters but war in the Middle East does not? Not likely. Instead of looking outside for reasons, I would look within. Some underlying assumptions to your model/thinking are faulty as far as I can tell.