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Strategies & Market Trends : Zeev's Turnips - No Politics -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Zeev Hed who wrote (54523)	4/22/2002 5:34:30 PM
From: KyrosL	Respond to of 99280

I am not worried about Le Pen. I think his 17% was a result of the dullness of the other two candidates. A lot of their voters stayed home, while Le Pen's followers flocked to the polls. I also think that other voters that are not ideologically aligned with Le Pen voted for him to "send a message" regarding their worries about immigration. I think most of his extra 7% was this kind of protest vote. Kyros

To: Zeev Hed who wrote (54523)	4/22/2002 5:39:15 PM
From: Smart_Money	Respond to of 99280

Is KevinMark still holding WCOM. I hope not. Message 17338353

To: Zeev Hed who wrote (54523)	4/22/2002 5:51:16 PM
From: Steve Lee	Respond to of 99280

"Steve, you are around there, what are the chances of Le Pen getting to the 25% level?" I really don't know. You can compare his 17% to previous percentages in the first round to get the idea of the trend, but I don't believe he has made it to the second round before so there is nothing to compare with. I really doubt he would get 25% of the vote though, considering less than 12% of the electorate voted for him and some of those were likely in protest of either Jospin or the European Union. I think the problem, if there is one, is that the similar movements in other countries may pick up pace, egged on by what is getting so much press in France. It is unlikely to happen in the UK for 2 reasons: 1) We don't have the level of support for this kind of movement. I believe this point holds true for pretty much the whole of Western Europe, Germany included. 2) We don't have a two round voting system. This means the fringe parties stay on the fringe The Eastern European countries are suffering economically and it probably won't take much to spark unrest, especially if some nutter comes along to "explain" how immigrants are causing all their woes. This is only a concern, I don't really have the exposure to Eastern Europe to guess what might or might not happen.

To: Zeev Hed who wrote (54523)	4/22/2002 9:55:58 PM
From: augieboo	Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 99280

I still think that Le Pen's showing has negative long term implications. If in the final elections next month he gets more than 25%, i would be really worried. Zeev, I don't think Le Pen has anything to do with recent action in the U.S. equities markets, but as a human being I agree heartily that any significant showing by him in the regular election is quite worrisome. Without delving too deeply into politics, I feel compelled to say that, IMHO, anti-semitism is alive and well and living all over Europe, and this fact has been used to great effect by bin Laden, Arafat, and their Islamist-terrorist brethren. I've already said too much, so I'll shut up now. augie. p.s. People around here love to label, so let me head them off: 1. I am not anti-European, but I am an unapologetic Anglophile, so I sometimes look askance at those Europeans who lack either the common sense to be British -- God save the Queen, and God rest the Queen Mum; a grand lady if there ever was one! -- or the genetic luck to be Italian. 2. I am not anti-Muslim, nor am I anti-Arab, but I am strongly pro-Jew and pro-Israel, and I think that the Whore-House of Saud is the chief enemy the U.S. faces in the world today.