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Strategies & Market Trends : Zeev's Turnips - No Politics -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Steve Lee who wrote (55258)	4/23/2002 6:12:51 PM
From: Nancy	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99280

steve, i dont believe you can prove it "scientifically" as it is a very fluid situation. when max pain is only 1 to 2 strikes away, they usually work to some degree. and also, max pain does not mean they have to close at max pain by expiry - all it implies is during the last 2 weeks they usually would touch max pain. you can check qqq alone, i believe it touched max pain and slightly throw over (a pt or so) in each of the past 5 months during the last 2 weeks of each cycle. you can go to iqauto.com to check past max pain points and compare your historical quotes data to see how it work.

To: Steve Lee who wrote (55258)	4/23/2002 6:41:30 PM
From: furrfu	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99280

Steve, Without wanting to teach my grandmother to suck eggs, there is an archive of Max-Pain data going back to Nov '97 at ez-pnf.com (BCA holds the trademark for the term Max-Pain, BTW). Probably find a lot of what you're wanting to create. Also somewhere on that site there is a statement that the whole purpose of what they are doing is to determine the validity of the concept. What Mish and nancy (in the other response) are talking about -hitting max pain in the 2 weeks before expiry- is contrary to the assumptions put on the study at BCA. BCA is interested in Max Pain as a true event, that event being the worthless expiration of options. Which would be at the close of trading on the third Friday, not two weeks beforehand. FWIW, if one can make more money by extrapolating the numbers for two weeks than by going by the definitions, the course is clear. Doug