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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Donald Wennerstrom who wrote (2879)	4/23/2002 11:23:18 PM
From: Return to Sender	Respond to of 95444

Don and Gottfried. I think tomorrow will be an up day after another weak open. We seem destined to to test 550 or 548 tomorrow on the SOX before what I hope will be a good strong rebound. Looking at the charts for the SOX components it seems clear we should see a little more selling but many of the stocks are getting close to oversold bounces: finance.yahoo.com^SOXX+ALTR+AMAT+AMD+BRCM+INTC+KLAC+LLTC+LSCC+LSI+MOT+MU+MXIM+NSM+NVLS+TER+TXN+XLNX&d=c&k=c3&t=3m&a=r14&p=b%2Cv&l=on&z=m&q=c The downgrade of LSCC was rough today. So were the comments about MU. MU may go to 27 before finding a reason to bottom and rise again. Those big name semi equips are going to have to lead in my opinion. At least for a little while longer. Thank you for the kind words on my efforts. Hopefully we will all benefit from the hard work shared by so many here. RtS

To: Donald Wennerstrom who wrote (2879)	4/24/2002 7:33:24 AM
From: JSLyons	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95444

Hi Don, One of the difficulties for the market these days, in my opinion, is the emergence of new leaders -- or new trends within traditional leaders -- in the so-called tech market. A review of recent results and CCs show most of the action is in the small but crucial leading edge, which often makes up only a fraction of an established company's activities. Yet, it is these established companies that get most of the attention and attract the big investment dollars. Such companies as KLIC and EMLX demonstrate this quite clearly. Scott Kulicke was adamant: cutting-edge foundries are at or near 100% capacity, while KLIC's broader customer base is only in the 60% range. As a result, orders were strong for the new MAXUM bonder that can handle extreme design features; the older bonder it replaces is being sold at firesale prices. EMLX's report says customers are skipping the current generation of technology and putting capex only into next-generation gear. So far, the demand for the high-end remains limited. But profit margins are often highest in this segment and it provides some road map to the future, as today's high end becomes tomorrow's established technology. As Cary will tell you, ALTR cited margins in the 60% range and said they will improve further for its line of fancy programmable chips. Your basic DRAM-maker can only dream of such numbers. Traditional metrics like the SOX reflect traditional "tech" companies, many of which will benefit only from large-scale capacity buys and general economic growth. MU's deal for Hynix may make it the world's biggest maker of DRAMs, but so what? A commodity is a commodity is a commodity. Turn on the TV or open the financial pages of a newspaper and we see the same, tired names. In this universe, "tech" has become a proxy for the economy in general. I suggest that by returning to the promise of technology investing, that is, by hunting down emerging technologies that are the "must haves" of the new decade, not the "had to haves" of the 1990s, there is still money to be made even in these tough times. The current malaise will continue until a new order begins to emerge within the test sector. My own basket of smaller tech firms, none of which are in the SOX, is far stronger than the SOX, the NAZ or other major indices would have you believe. A few to look at: ASYT, AXTI, EMKR, GGNS, TRKN, KLIC, MKSI, ATMI, ALTR. Good luck all. Jonathan

To: Donald Wennerstrom who wrote (2879)	4/24/2002 9:03:39 PM
From: Return to Sender	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95444

Semiconductor Stocks Raising Guidance: ACLS ALTR ARXX BHE CHPC CHRT CRUS CYMI ELNT EMKR ESST FCS IDTI ISIL JBL KLIC KOPN LLTC LRCX MCHP MCRL MKSI NSM NVLS PSEM PWER QLTI RFMD SLAB SSTI TER TXN VSEA XLNX ZRAN finance.yahoo.com List includes semiconductor related stocks. Added tonight are ACLS, ARXX, ISIL, KOPN, PSEM, PWER, SSTI and special mention to ESST which once again upped guidance after blowing away estimates. Axcelis Tech tops estimates; guides higher (ACLS) 14.29 -0.06: Reports Q1 (Mar) loss of $0.18 per share, $0.03 better than the Multex consensus of ($0.21); revenues fell 59.2% year/year to $62.1 mln vs the $50.3 mln consensus; sees Q2 net loss in the range of $0.09 - $0.12 per share vs the consensus estimate for a net loss of $0.19 per share. Aeroflex matches estimates; updates guidance (ARXX) 13.48 -0.87: Reports Q3 (Mar) earnings of $0.03 per share, in line with the Multex consensus of $0.03; revenues fell 20.9% year/year to $50.6 mln vs the $50.5 mln consensus; sees Q4 revs in the range of $56.7-$57.2 mln vs the consensus estimate of $55.9 mln. Intersil beats by a penny (ISIL) 28.89 -0.42: -- Update -- As suggested by the rumored early release (see 15:59 comment), ISIL reports Q1 EPS of $0.14, a penny better than the Multex consensus; revenues were $134.1 mln vs the consensus of $129.6 mln. Guides Q2 and FY02 EPS of $0.15 and $0.65-0.67 vs consensus estimates of $0.15 and $0.64. Kopin beats loss estimate by $0.03 (KOPN) 8.58 -0.26: Reports a Q1 loss of $0.05 per share, $0.03 better than the Multex consensus. Revenues rose 17.4% year/year to $17.6 mln vs the $16.1 mln consensus. Pericom Semi beats by a penny (PSEM) 13.41 +0.21: Reports Q3 (Mar) net of breakeven, $0.01 better than the Multex consensus of ($0.01); revenues fell 51.6% year/year to $12.5 mln vs the $12.3 mln consensus. Guides Jun qtr revenues to flat to up 3% sequentially, or $12.5-12.9 mln vs $12.8 mln consensus. Power-One beats by two cents (PWER) 8.09: Reports Q1 (Mar) loss of $0.07 per share, $0.02 better than the Multex consensus of ($0.09); revenues fell 71.5% year/year to $48.4 mln vs the $46.5 mln consensus. Guides Q2 to a loss of $0.05-0.07 and revenues of $50-55 mln vs consensus estimates of a loss of $0.07 and $49.9 mln. Silicon Storage beats by four cents (SSTI) 9.24 +0.12: Reports Q1 EPS of $0.02, four cents better than the Multex consensus of a loss of $0.02; revenues were $74.6 mln vs the consensus of $67.0 mln. Guides Q2 EPS to breakeven to a $0.01 profit vs breakeven consensus. ESS Tech beats by 10 cents (ESST) 17.95 +0.28: Reports Q1 EPS of $0.37, ten cents better than the Multex consensus of $0.27; revenues were $79.1 mln vs the $75.2 mln consensus. Guides Q2 revenues to $76-79 mln from prior guidance of $66-70 mln (Multex: $76.2 mln); EPS guided to $0.24-0.28 vs consensus of $0.24. RtS