Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : MARKET INDEX TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - MITA -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: J.T. who wrote (11706)	4/24/2002 5:58:23 AM
From: nsumir81	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 19219

Gmorn. 1999 was different. The '90s were different. Several other factors which could not be quantified or seen via charts (again not denigrating technical analysis) like the collapse of the Soviet Union (no matter how some may pooh-pooh this, the breakup extended our reach over the world in business and geopolitics and in many ways the breakup subsidized the world economy unlocked the Caspian region etc), the Gulf War (again effects similar to the first factor), adoption and acceptance of pro-forma 'earnings', the dumping of commodities in favor of artificial asset classes like stocks (we all know how artificial they are in representing fractional bits of companies which they are supposed to), the 1995 Securities and Litigation Act (got the name right?..Safe Harbor nonsense), the Internet was a new and novel thing (unlike now) and a lot of activity centered around it in hopes some of which never materialized, etc. In 1998 you had massive rate cuts in an economy that was already in overdrive (hence massive) that was supposed to help with the currency situation that mysteriously vanished as it came into being around the 1994 Mexican Peso crisis. In 1999 you had a massive infusion of liquidity that wound its way into the market. Everyone was into it. Traders, tax-drivers (not denigrating them either), and all. A once-in-a-lifetime event or once-in-many years event. Who is to say? Folks look at e-waves and what not to foresee the future. For me it is just a qualitative feel about the way things are (with world 'peace' the way it is doing away with the peace dividend of the '90s, etc, bankruptcies (did you have them around in 1999 in spades like now?; did you have capex cuts like now? layoffs like now which are still continuing albeit in smaller numbers? debt levels and debt REPAYMENT problems for Corporate America like now? did you have Enron nevermind what may happen or not happen in its wake? did you have masses disillusioned with equities though many still linger? did you have startups after startups fold up unlike the blossoming of innovation in the mid to late '90s especially..look at the several recent ones that went poof..sad, really)? did you have a big pause in tech innovation then like now ? - I mean paradigm shifting tech innovation not incremental. How about VC spending and outlook? The VC guru who fostered several optical (former) powerhouses is now seeing a bubble in storage as he saw once in optical stuff. Tech out-innovates itself and continually sends itself into obsolescence during an adoption phase which we are in now as we try to figure out HOW TO MAKE MONEY with all that innovation. Until the paradigm shifters (most likely in the software area) and killer-apps come again, we may not see another burst of enthusiasm kick in. Something that can be sustained. Not something that is subject and prone to vagaries of liquidity pumping. Again as said previously, I am not of the opinion that what will ensue be something like say 10 years of doom and gloom as some do. I just feel it will take more time for all this to even out and settle. In the meantime bear rallies in at least the major popular indices will keep folks enthused. I bet on the topping out in mid-July 2000. Honestly, I have not done very well for other reasons. (Trading is a different ball game) But I was correct on the direction. That much I can take comfort in. The bears were wrong then. The bulls are wrong now or at least have been for some time now. It is all a moment in time. Sometimes we get it right. At other times we don't. All have their place on the curve. Que sera sera.