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Strategies & Market Trends : Zeev's Turnips - No Politics -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: Joseph Beltran who wrote (55478)4/24/2002 8:56:04 AM
From: DebtBomb  Respond to of 99280
 
Hehehehe, well you don't want a panic do you?? What would you say?? ;-)



To: Joseph Beltran who wrote (55478)4/24/2002 8:56:28 AM
From: nsumir81  Respond to of 99280
 
Wonder if "well underway" = Almost over? Euphemisms!



To: Joseph Beltran who wrote (55478)4/24/2002 9:11:58 AM
From: DebtBomb  Respond to of 99280
 
I think McManus said it best, but hey there could be little rallies here and there along the way:
Sell in May?

In a note entitled "Sell in May," Banc of America Securities' Thomas McManus claimed that it's "payback time" for upcoming economic reports as most data for the winter months were boosted by seasonal factors.

"Activity originally planned for the autumn months was deferred in many cases because of the terrorist attacks. And aggressive Federal Reserve easing, clearance sales and superb weather spurred consumer spending to an extent one could hardly consider to be normal," he maintained.

But as the calendar shifts into spring and summer, the seasonal factors that have provided a lift to the reported data become less friendly, the strategist pointed out. Additionally, the rebound in fuel prices will reverse an important positive for consumers.

He notes that stocks tend to outperform when economic data is "lifted" by seasonal factors and that their underperformance coincides with the period when the economic data is "deflated."

McManus also observes that over the past 75 years, the total return for the S&P 500 from May through October was lower than that for November through April by more than 500 basis points on an annual basis.