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To: orkrious who wrote (161964)	4/24/2002 11:49:42 PM
From: mishedlo	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 436258

Another Look ahead. In response to the following post on SI ======================================================================= looking at QQQ P/C open interest, with the lack of fear we may get some call buying at the 33 strike. It will just take some optimism (relatively speaking) to get max pain moved from 34 to 33. that would allow us to dip some more here before moving up to max pain. we'll see what mish has to say. ======================================================================= Looking ahead in June I have a huge problem with 100K+ puts at strike 35. Right now my call is those will get taken out. Thus I am still calling for a June rally and not a June Swoon (perhaps an early june swoon then huge rally?) I note with interest that June Expiry is on the lastest day possible (June 21). The MSFT INTC and CSCO June options which have just started trading, are even lighter than May, but June QQQ put interest is huge. If we see lots of call buying on the June QQQ's my scenario could merge in with Zeev's for a late June bottom, but that seems doubtful at this time. OTOH early May bottom has its problems as well. Options on QQQ are lighter, MSFT is relatively light (but not compared to June), but CSCO and INTC are somewhat beefy (but nothing like last month). So where does that leave us. I suppose we could see a megar rally to May Max Pain (QQQ 33-34 for the early expiry on May 17th), then with next expiry not till June 24, we could die for the rest of May and Early June (3 full weeks of torture) then the Summer Rally begins approximately June 7) Right now, that is indeed my revised forecast. Cancelling the Memorial day rally call but leaving the June rally intact starting sometime about 1st week in June. Alternate Scenario, is we just keep plunging here with no May max pain rally, in which case The Memorial Day rally thru June could still be in the cards. Either way I am sticking with a June Rally, one way or the other although the bottom could very well be in June as well (early June as opposed to late June). Perhaps that would satisfy the Turnips call for a June swoon as well as my call for a horrid May and a June Rally. Note: Zeev is calling for a late June bottom, which I am betting against (at this point in time, based on QQQ options that I see now. Of course this can and will be revised but I see no real reason for any kind of decent long running rally until then). M