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Strategies & Market Trends : Technical analysis for shorts & longs -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Lachesis Atropos who wrote (36834)	4/24/2002 11:16:08 PM
From: Lachesis Atropos	Respond to of 68070

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To: Lachesis Atropos who wrote (36834)	4/26/2002 2:28:32 AM
From: Johnny Canuck	Respond to of 68070

Hi Lawrence, >>Re "slope of the trend". Would not the converse be true >>over a time period of a year? If one increased the time >>period for which the regression line was calculated to a >>year or two year period the converse would be true. Over >>a longer time period we would be in the upper portion of >>the channel. With a six month period the trend line >>appears to have a very aggressive bullish trend. Looks >>like one from 1999 to 2000. It depends on the index. If you look at the SP500, you will see that a one year linear regression is actually down sloping and it is starting the test the bottom portion of the channel. Given that this is the case for the longer term linear regression line then I would give more weight to the test of the down trend line on the short time frame. The key point is to go with the longer term trend. So in the case of the SP500, we are currently testing the lower range of a minor up trend within a longer term down trend.