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Pastimes : Clown-Free Zone... sorry, no clowns allowed -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: NOW who wrote (161977)	4/25/2002 12:05:50 AM
From: LLCF	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 436258

Naw... if you were King, you'd get out first! LOL, there's lots of kings around... no one want's to admit to being a CLOWN! daK

To: NOW who wrote (161977)	4/25/2002 2:07:39 AM
From: patron_anejo_por_favor	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 436258

<<isnt the best scenario for the market and US economy here a big sell-off in equities, with a lowering of LT interst rates>> Nope. Even BubbleBoy has called it a "fragile recovery". A shock like that (an equity sell-off) would cause the lenders to retrench, accelerate debt trapping, and turn NYC into Tokyo, ca 1994. Unemployment would kick up...capital spending would fall through the floor because banksters capital would go up in smoke. Nah, I don't think we wanna go there (but we're going anyway!)

To: NOW who wrote (161977)	4/25/2002 9:36:14 AM
From: reaper	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 436258

<<isnt the best scenario for the market and US economy here a big sell-off in equities, with a lowering of LT interst rates? >> not really. that will create a classic liquidity trap. lower rates in that scenario will NOT be accompanied by more home purchases and re-financings as the lower rates will be indicative of an asset price collapse. i will not be able to yet again re-finance my million-dollar condo when it retreats to my purchase price (of not quite 3 years ago) of $400k. the way out of this mess is re-flation. basically, cause inflation which de-bases the 'real' value of all the debt out there held by consumers and businesses. debt KILLS in a deflation, but it's not a worry in an inflationary environment. note that neither one of these scenarios is "good". my bet is on the first one (collapsing assets and interest rates) which will kill the leveraged and hugely benefit the liquid (thus the structure of my holdings; short financial institutions and indebted companies and long a handful of strong cash generators with clean balance sheets). i have come to think that gold will benefit from EITHER scenario, though i have no gold position (which is too bad, as its not like everyone here didn't tell me to own some). Cheers