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Strategies & Market Trends : Zeev's Turnips - No Politics -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: t2 who wrote (56141)	4/25/2002 1:08:48 AM
From: ajtj99	Respond to of 99280

NV, the average price of the Dow futures for June is 10,400, so you can bet the 10,000 level will be defended vigorously here. It will not yield for more than a short whipsaw, IMO. Maybe 9997 or 9940 for a low. If it gets much below 9940, the MM's will start delta hedging it to 9500-9600 in short order (no pun intended), as they need that to delta hedge to break even on a break of 10,000 on the June positions. However, I am a believer that the 10,000 level will be defended until May expiration, and then it will fall. I think we have some interesting days ahead. I am all cash right now, so I guess I'm not putting my money where my mouth is. If we go up to NDX 1337 or higher by Friday, I may get puts. At this level the risk/reward ratio for puts is weighted more to the risk and less to the reward, IMO.