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To: sun-tzu who wrote (162099)	4/25/2002 12:36:33 PM
From: Secret_Agent_Man	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 436258

Sun, nothing looks bullish, zip, nada. are you sure? thebulliondesk.com look again... yeah I know it sucks<g>

To: sun-tzu who wrote (162099)	4/25/2002 12:56:26 PM
From: Oblomov	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 436258

>> to me, historical patterns in the market are repetitive. things never change and people always make the same mistakes...over and over again. Again, I am challenging the validity of the historical construct, however you define it. Things do change - but the broad changes throughout history follow a pattern. Is this evidence of a true set of relationships existing, or just a construct that we have imposed on history (thus misunderstanding , while convincing ourselves that we understand)? The question is, is the construct valid? One cannot answer this question by merely observing that a correlation exists. Just because something has "worked" doesn't mean it worked for the reasons that you think. I am LT bullish as well, but I am open-minded as to what constitutes "long-term".

To: sun-tzu who wrote (162099)	4/25/2002 1:40:13 PM
From: martin001	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 436258

Sun - I'd be interested to hear your take on what market history is telling you. And why that interpretation is making you bullish. The most obvious lesson of the markets is their cyclical nature. Every boom is followed by a bust. The more exuburant the high- the more devastating the low. Even setting aside the notion of the previous bubble and its ramifications, any new bull market is preceded by a period of retrenchment. Weaker companies go bankrupt, consolidations occur, and debt used for the previous expansion gets paid down. The only thing that has happened currently are the bankrupticies. I see no consolidation and no debt being cleared from balance sheets. In fact corporate debt is worse. It is my belief that because of the massive malinvestment that occurred during the last few years, the period of retrenchment will be much longer than normal. M

To: sun-tzu who wrote (162099)	4/25/2002 7:29:13 PM
From: LLCF	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 436258

<<nothing looks bullish, zip, nada. in light of that and the favorable broad internals, i can not maintain a bearish posture.>> But WS equity %'s are near all time highs and MF $ at all time lows... no one is out of the market, everyone is holding on till the bitter end... trying to assume the low rates will create a recovery. No historical constructs have changed at all and no reason to fit anything into current situation. Turning BULLISh at this point would be to change historical construct to fit the situation IMO. you may be talking about one data point [i rates] in your assertion... and in that case I see your point. DAK DAK