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Technology Stocks : Cohu, Inc. (COHU) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Gottfried who wrote (2863)	4/26/2002 7:14:56 AM
From: Berk	Respond to of 7827

Guys I thought the performance today was very good. Good news or bad after earnings come out they have beating stock prices into the ground but not this one. If it continues to hold its own in this market, we may get Bob's run up pretty quick.

To: Gottfried who wrote (2863)	4/26/2002 8:59:26 AM
From: robert b furman	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 7827

Hi G, First off thanks for the great charts. It never ceases to amaze me how much I see every time I look at them. I think Cohu is well on its way to new highs.That may sound overly optimistic - but I think Cohu is now not only the largest global testhandler - they also own the proprietary info that will make them the go to testhandler maker into the future. That is nice but what works even more is the entire chip making process evolution into smaller line widths and Low k dielectrics pushes all chip makers to the front door of Cohus new larger paid for manufacturing center. Cohu will gain more market share by selling their higher margin products - this is a bright future. The next issue I'm hoping for is a timing issue.As noted in past posts there is a second momentum wave of bookings and shipments within each cycle. If you look at your charts - count up from the bottom of each cycle and note that during the fifth month of increasing bookings or shipments The high of Cohus stock price dips back to the high of the third month up.This happened in 96 and 98. I don't know that it will repeat.I think it is a pause that waits to confirm that the laggards are also ordering.Once the backlog jumps up with laggard manufacturers placing orders - the race is on earnings get projected to go on for ever and multiple expansion occurs. Confess my sins here. In both these slight dips in price (96 & 99) I had leveraged up my paper profits and the decline scared the heck out of me.This time - if it reoccurs I'd like to buy the dip instead of sweat it. Make no mistake - I'm major long here - more than ever before.So I'm playing it cute trying to microplay the market.That's when I usually screw up.gg It would be nice to buy the dip and have a cushion from th beginning instead of sweating out the dip with a high cost holding that is under water. It looks like we are in month 3 or 4.If a month 5 dip occurs that goes back to month 3 prices - there should be a reentry point in late may/june that would allow a buy in the 27 - 29 range and then go up like a banshi from there. This is admittedly hoping for a replay - sort of like E-wave studies and that is iffy at best.I just remember sweating out both periods and am trying to avoid that stress. Our favorite stock always gives a shake before a big move.My emotion and greed lead to acquire a max position and that makes it emotionally stressful. So I bought the breakout and I'm not chasing - I'm holding for a dip.If that doesn't work - I'll work back into later sector rotations:Fiber optics (my other passion and long term megatrend belief) and/or Electronic manufacturer Contractors. I've been drooling over the idea of a stock I've admired for years getting killed by this telecom glut -SLR @ 7 !!! This stock is another homerun waiting to put in a double/triple bottom.The overcapacity in Telecom is really crunching their business - but just as surely as semi's come back - SO TOO WILL THIS 800 Pound Gorilla.JMHO I'd be very interested in your take on my double bump/dip timing play.If I had January (96 and 99)on your chart in a different color - the fine tune could be more exact(hint hint).gg I know you need something else to do on your charts. Once again thanks - I'm going to TC2000 and find the dip dates in price. I'll update them to you. Thanks Bob