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Strategies & Market Trends : Booms, Busts, and Recoveries -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: smolejv@gmx.net who wrote (18450)	4/26/2002 11:35:09 AM
From: TobagoJack	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 74559

Hello DJ, I think 50% of the NAV game is allocation, 25% is specific picks, the rest is luck. Have you solved the problem of asset allocation yet? No? Me neither. I just took a look at my overall allocation, not in terms of asset class the way I usually do, but in terms of currency exposure. A different cut of the same pie to expose vulnerabilities in line with concerns to suit the changing times. A mouthful of words. I did not like what I realized: 24% of my goodies are in USD pegged HKD which are over-valued against USD, almost all in sitting duck real estate; and 42% of my pizza is still in thr real USD which are over valued against everything else, in mostly easy to decamp cash, bonds, and stocks. What to do? Expensive currency derivative moves? Additional straightforward conversion dance to other vulnerable currencies? More serious allocation to gold shares by direct purchase? Short ever larger tranches of gold mining puts? Time is getting short for this long USD exposed investor. I have just doubled my following positions: AWK, AAPTY, BP, DROOY, GOLD, HGMCY, IMPAY, and XOM; and increased by a bit my NEM. Chugs, Jay