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Strategies & Market Trends : Gorilla and King Portfolio Candidates -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: techreports who wrote (51144)	4/26/2002 2:01:00 PM
From: tinkershaw	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 54805

tinker, what's your thoughts on 801.11 as a threat towards CDMA data? I've worked on this issue some when I was working on eBooks. So I'm just gonna talk from a marketing perspective, many others much more technically inclined can better address other issues. Ideally the cellular phone could provide everyone their data needs. It is simpler, cheaper, and the easiest way to give ubiquitous distribution. On the other hand data charges today are steep, to say the least. On my Sprint phone, I paid $150 + or something, as I accidentally went over my minutes during the day time, and all I did was check on my stock prices 2,3, or 4 times a day. I did no serious data stuff. I certainly have no repeated that mistake and now only use the data capability during evenings and weekends when I get my 10 billion minutes per month. So at these prices it ain't going nowhere. On the other hand, 802.11, if the standardization can be worked out, and cheap chips produced in regard, can be quickly adopted in everything from eBooks, PDAs, laptops, cellular phones, etc., and everyone, whether they know it or not will have it. The question then begs, who is going to offer the 802.11 and where. It is not like you can charge for it. But then again, if your a sales person, on the road, and you need to update your catalog daily, why not drop into an AMOCO who may have just installed such a device near their pumps. $500 of equipment per gas station, increasing the utility of stopping in at the name brand gas station. I'd make the investment. There are already the examples of restaurants doing this with cellular phones to take orders, airports are doing it, and some hotels are beginning to experiment with it. Some schools have also started to do this, mostly with the Apple Airport product. But some of the wealthier school districts could see 802.11 wireless stuff within the next few years throughout their campuses. Maybe colleges next. But there are still technical and regulatory hurdles here, but it does look exciting. So in conclusion, from the above analysis, CDMA certainly can provide truly mobile data access, and become ubiquitous quicker, and reach more customer quicker. However, at the price carriers are thinking of charging, I think any heavy wireless data use will be of the 802.11 variety and not CDMA. But there are still kinks to be worked out. But free is free, and a $150 surprise bill for simply checking your stock prices a few times a day is outrageous. So unless CDMA data usage bills become reasonable, in my opinion as a marketer, 802.11 is going to win out if the technical and regulatory hurdles can be overcome. CDMA data will still be used for migratory use, as 802.11 is short-range, but it is not positioned for primary wireless usage at the current price rates. Tinker