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Strategies & Market Trends : MARKET INDEX TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - MITA -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: J.T. who wrote (11794)	4/26/2002 3:15:16 PM
From: marginmike	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 19219

1)dollar will continue to fall causing money to leave US market 2)There is no recovery beyond inventory rebuilds from 9/11, when people realize this they will finally acept that forward Earnings estimates are 30-40% to high 3)Earnings estimates are 30-40% to high 4)Sentiment In VIX, in Equity/bond ratio's and Aii survey show people are still wildly bullish. Vix new trading range seems to be a myth and it needs to go to 30-35. IMHO 5)The happy denial and refusal to sell stocks is rampent amongst everyone I talk too. I need real capitulation, where people swear off stocks, and get defencive 6)Terrorism risk is not priced into the market, one bomber at a Mcdonalds and all hell will break loose 7)Credit levels are at an unsustainable high here, and rates cant go much lower, there is not enough gas in the car 8)Us govt acount defict and trade imbalance must finally be paid reducing growth levels substatially, and lowering ability of fed to keep rates artificially low(see#1) 9)Tech stocks and old econ are vastly overvalued BY ANY METRIC 10)Technichally every indicie is in the process or has broken down, many individual stox and some index's like the BTK>X have. In my experience where one goes they all go. I learned that from you in 1998. 11)Rydex numbers though extreme have been very bad indicator of late, and though I think its great I believe in indicator failures in big market moves. 12)Liquidity is drying up as fed realizes it cant keep pumping, this is very similear to 1999-2000 post y2K where fed stoped the pump. This more then anything else is why I remain very cautious. I could go on, but I think there are some good points. Most are do to liquidity drying up.