The Future Face of Enterprise Computing
By Lisa Gill
www.NewsFactor.com
Mon Apr 29, 1:40 PM ET
While analysts are reluctant to peer more than five years into the future of IT, they agree that the near future holds the promise of a better, faster and more value-packed enterprise computing environment -- albeit one with heightened security concerns.
At least, that will be the case once chief information officers (CIOs) are able to start planning for the future again, following the crunch of time, energy and resources that plagued IT in 2001 and early 2002.
IT Appetite Satiated - For Now
Forrester (Nasdaq: FORR - news) group director Ted Schadler told NewsFactor that the corporate appetite for new technology is at a near-record low right now. Enterprises instead have focused on getting increased value from applications purchased last year, he said.
According to Schadler, a Forrester survey of 1,000 IT and business managers in North America showed that spending in all areas of IT -- except integration and storage -- had declined over the last year.
Spending on CRM, desktop upgrades, ERP, business services, consultants and e-commerce, Schadler noted, all decreased from the previous year.
"This is sort of like the inventory problem in manufacturing," he said. "Once the inventory is used up, the appetite will come back. It's a 2002 phenomenon, and as to when it's going to break, we think the 'up' pattern starts in 2003."
Web Services Defined
Despite the slowdown in IT spending, Web services implementation topped every analyst's list of future investments.
The term "Web services" is often defined as technology that connects businesses and business partners' computers and networks over the Internet, using tools like Microsoft's .NET and Sun Microsystems' Java. But according to Schadler, Web services is a technology looking for a precise definition.
"The problem with Web services is that it's an elephant and you're a blind man. Some people see a wall, some people see a snake," he said.
Five-Year Horizon
Schadler pointed to Microsoft (Nasdaq: MSFT - news), Sun, IBM (NYSE: IBM - news) and Oracle (Nasdaq: ORCL - news) as companies that currently are shipping Web services technologies. But because CIOs are grappling with the challenge of how to wring more value from existing applications, he does not expect to see much demand for new services until 2003.
John Gantz, chief research officer of IDC, told NewsFactor that he foresees a timeline of five years for full implementation of Web services.
"Most companies have thousands of computer applications, so it will be one at a time that they will migrate to Web services tools to integrate, upgrade or replace," Gantz said.
He likened the adoption of Web services to Java's implementation. Before that programming language became widely used, it took several years for companies to determine whether it was a profitable tool; for programmers to perfect their skills; and for applications to be developed.
Wireless Networks Adopted
Enterprise computing also will see the adoption of wireless networks on a larger scale, analysts noted, driven in particular by increased adoption of smaller computing devices, such as PDAs.
Neal Goldman, research director at the Yankee Group, told NewsFactor that he expects more people soon will use handheld devices with souped-up computing power.
"Now, you've got applications which are going to run on these devices that have reasonable computing power," Goldman said. "Web services is going to be the mechanism these things use to communicate with each other, and it all creates a big, huge security problem."
Adopting LANs
While analysts note that implementing wireless LANs is not on most companies' immediate agenda, they expect to see large-scale adoption of the technology in the near future as speed increases and costs drop.
IDC's Gantz said he believes the healthcare and banking industries are best positioned for wireless adoption. He added that 3G (third generation) mobile networking will fundamentally alter the way universities -- and even small towns -- connect to the Internet and to each other.
Gantz explained that with 3G networks, several LANs in one area could act as a single connection. "If you had your facilities organized right, you could almost have a 20-mile LAN using wireless and then have some really nice high speeds," he said.
Security Flaws in Focus
Goldman's comment about security concerns regarding Web services and wireless networks is a message repeated by many other analysts.
IDC senior security analyst Alan Carey told NewsFactor that he anticipates a greater focus on security at the application level as enterprise shifts its attention away from the network layer and the perimeter, particularly as Web services are adopted.
Carey also said he believes a change in programming strategies will occur as software developers focus more attention on security issues at the beginning stages of program creation, rather than at the end.
Not for Y2K Only
"I think Bill Gates (news - web sites) has addressed this and realizes that security is a top concern, and that some features and functionality may be sacrificed in order to develop more secure software," Carey said.
As for security's role in the enterprise and the increased focus on keeping enterprise systems safe from attack, Carey declared that security's high profile is here to stay.
"Security is not a Y2K event. It's not a onetime deal. As long as enterprises are communicating and conducting business over the Internet, security will have to remain a top concern," he noted.
Digital Media Use To Increase
The Yankee Group's Goldman anticipated that corporate communications also will change soon. He pointed to teleconferences, videoconferences, Web collaboration and streaming media as ways in which companies might routinely disseminate information in the future.
"[Those methods] can be an effective method of communicating to a lot of people very quickly. If you're sharing information between people, then it's a way to have audit trails of information and create a knowledge history that wouldn't exist otherwise," Goldman explained.
Goldman believes instant messaging (news - web sites) could impact corporate communications in a similar way to e-mail, though the instantaneous nature of it could prove aggravating.
"I think there are some cultural issues around that, like I don't want to be bugged everywhere I go -- kind of the same as with cell phones," said Goldman.
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