Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Technology Stocks : Cisco Systems, Inc. (CSCO) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Victor Lazlo who wrote (59133)	4/27/2002 12:01:09 AM
From: bambs	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 77400

btw. up until mid 2000 i had never even considered investing in gold markets...if wrote them off as dead forever...as a comodity who's time had past. it wasn't until i took note of all the money being created. the billions and billions being spent on tech. massive loans...and started to take real note of the market caps of big tech and the speculative bubble that was out there. I also had a real problem taking on a 200k first mortgage on my first home in 1999. I was scared...I was thinking about what could happen if interest rates rose back to 20%...my wifes parents had lost there home and lifes savings in the late 1970's when interest rates spiked..I decided to read up on the subject and wanted to find a way to protect myself. I was both scared to buy a home..and not to buy a home....I feared that if the fed cranked down rates like we have seen since 2000..that home prices would take off...I would miss out...i feared that prices would run away from me and i may find myself stuck renting for years...on the other hand, i thought if i did buy...the home could drop 20% or so in value..i would lose my deposit and if interest rates rose i could be ruined...I worked as a MSCE computer consultant and feared that tech bubble would crash after y2k. I thought that i had best be prepared to not be able to find high paying work after 2000. I worked on y2k contracts at a couple of major brokerage houses in late 1999. I saw what was going on there...the excesses..seemed like pure gambling...i was interested...and since i felt i had an inside track on understanding tech..i would be able to use that to my advantage...anyhow... the home thing really had me worried...i read many books about the history of money, interest rates, the federal reserve and greenspan..trying to figure how this would play out. I came to the conclusion that they would try to creat a housing bubble to stop the fall out from the markets...so i stayed in the housing market and saw my condo go up 35% in just over a year...i sold it and moved to the burbs. got a nice house with a nice piece of land..across from a forest...it was also cheaper then what i sold the condo for. i still thought that i had better protect my self against rising interest rates...i figured that the only way the fed would crank up interest rates is if gold started to run away..if we had run away inflation...if not..i would be fine with work and with housing prices. I invested in gold stocks and silver stocks to hedge the value of my home...the gain i have made on these stocks can already pay for my home..so i figure i am covered. my plan is to slowly cycle out profits and put them into physical silver for the long term. let me just say...i don't wish any harm to the economy. i loved the good times..i love tech...i loved making cake rolling out new servers and pc's to rich brokerage firms...some of my happiest days were working in that industry...but the good times were ending..that was clear...i don't see any upgrade or roll out cycle on the horizon...i don't see the business case for it...i don't see any ROE in moving the average worker from a PIII 600 to a P4. windows NT to windows 2000...makes no sense. when i see the next big roll out or upgrade cycle coming ..i will be more then happy to sell out of my gold stocks and invest in a growth industry...i don't see one...at least not one with attractive valuation...semi's are trading at 200 times next years' expected earnings..and i think those expectations are even to high...i can see the sox.x easily getting crushed to 200 or so by next year...i think the nas will test 1000 some time next year...the only way to stop this from happening is if the world governments decided to monetize debt and deficit spend... i think that would be a good thing... spend away...let's do good things..build better schools...work on clean energy solutions, clean up inner cities...help the needy. better hospitals...etc...more tech stuff...broadband for everyone..i'm all for it... what i am against is corrupt government...lies about inflation. screwing prudent savers and retired fixed incomers. I see a future for gold because i see deficits and government debts that will not be taken care of with out monetizing debt. without just printing the debt away...or inflating it away..it's time we acted like adults..told the truth..admit we screwed up...that the debt is out of control..lets clean up the mess and do some good. let's not lie about it..try to sweep it under the carpet...let's not hide it and leave it for the next generation to deal with it. the reality is...there is a big problem with our financial system. it must be cleaned up...i'm sick of seeing bankers and investment houses running the show...the fed printing and giving them money...that's what is going on. it's theft in my mind..and the average american is being robbed and don't know it. bambs p.s. buy an suv..everything will be okay.