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Strategies & Market Trends : MARKET INDEX TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - MITA -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: J.T. who wrote (11813)	4/27/2002 7:12:20 AM
From: DlphcOracl	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 19219

J.T.: My vote is that indices will be higher by the end of the year. I, too, do not buy into a retest of the 9/21/01 lows, which were precipitated by an inconceivable (at that time) terrorist attack and the subsequent fear that the consumer would hibernate for the next few quarters. This, of course, did not happen. The consumer is pretty much tapped out and is not going to increase his/her spending levels over the remainder of the year. However, I also do not see significant consumer retrenchment on the horizon. There is little doubt that a slow, halting, but steady economic recovery is underway and that the economy is in better shape than it was 6 months ago. Thus, a true retest or break of the September lows seems unlikely to me. I've put my money where my mouth is when I saw we were having a nasty close and I've gone from 100% cash to 100% ProFunds OTC fund (1:1). My guess (hope) is that we are 1 to 2 days away from a significant bounce. If I'm wrong or early, I will double my bet with the UOPIX leveraged (2:1) Nasdaq 100 fund if we get to the September lows. Simply put, I cannot conceive of a reasonable scenario where the Nasdaq will not cross back over 2000 in the next 12-18 months. This is either a ST or LT investment depending on what the market does from here but, it is a reasonable safe bet (IMHO).