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To: Clappy who wrote (50649)	4/27/2002 10:01:07 AM
From: Jim Willie CB	Respond to of 65232

Bently email on actual silver deficit Jim, Read most recent "www.silver-investor.com" article by Savoy. Form your own conclusions as to validity of arguments and statements. Net silver deficit is still there. The validity of the numbers is always questionable. How much is postering and reality is difficult to determine. The silver stockpiles what ever their size are shrinking. Best estimates are that less 150 million oz remain o supply an annual fabrication 900 million/oz demand. A Recent Quote: "If there is one truism, that I could impart upon a novice trader in the markets, it would be that bull markets ignore bad news and that bear markets ignore good news. Financial markets are much more about psychology and momentum than facts, figures, and reality." --Leonard Kaplan. My timing is about September/October 2002 before Silver begins a big upward move. Mostly a 10% ($0.50/oz) increase in silver price at best between now and September. It could be mostly flat at $4.70 range. I am 90% confident it will not decline to less than $4.35/oz. in what remains in 2002. Gold prices are likely to begin the move upward sooner. If gold moves past $350 this year, look for major regional war somewhere. IRAQ, IRAN, Saudis? vs U.S. or India vs Pakistan conflict. My timing for next two terrorist attacks or events are: (June 1st 2,002 + or - a week). A more significant event on September 1st + or - 2 weeks. Gold prices will be the indicator to watch both before and after. Another quote I believe in: "When governments find that facts and theory conflict, they ignore the facts. Only as a last resort and in the presence of crisis will a government (people) act rational and logically." These are just some thoughts. Do your own Due Dilligence. The above is opinon and not meant for investment purposes or to buy anything or sell anything. / Wally Bently in response to my email on Thursday: Wally, I keep reading lately that the silver deficit is now falling read reports that the annual deficit is somewhere around 70-80 million oz I understand that the worldwide recession is pulling down mfg demand, but investment demand must be perking up, as tagalong with gold could you drop me a quick line with thoughts about the deficit? I expect the demand side soon to mushroom upward a shiny silver dime for your thoughts? by the way, I own silver proof US coins thanks, Jim

To: Clappy who wrote (50649)	4/27/2002 10:15:53 AM
From: Jim Willie CB	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 65232

Uncle GreeenCancer has interrupted his pumping lately a careful look shows the major stock averages have been tightly correlated with the Fed-controlled money supply for several years he has stalled the money growth since early March ergo, stocks stalled also talk about a managed economy, managed stock market !!! sooner or later, the pumping of printed semi-worthless money will not matter the cancer in the USdollar currency lies in its creation from nothing the sickness is showing itself now as - an economy that is attempting to reflate a scarred bubble - debts weighing on every crevice and corner imaginable - a stock market that will not get on its feet squarely - absence of profits as price deflation dominates corporations - dollars under every feckin rock throughout the world - entire small economies worldwide built upon the same sand of dollar-based USTBonds - perverse signals in every developing economy whereby health is determined by how much the local currency is destroyed the Federal Reserve actions simply wont matter before long we will muddle along, unless and until the USdollar dives but dont be fooled the Fed cannot rescue indefinitely they can execute temporary fixes but their fix is what caused the problem in the first place, so over time their fix diminishes in its potency this is sad to watch unfold it represents the failure of uncontrolled Keynesian fiat currency-based economy management what I find most ironic is the parallel between the Soviet Union run by its Politburo controlling their economy... with the United States run by its Federal Reserve controlling the dollar, money supply, gold, interest rates, and increasingly failing to influence the stock market, and even recently attempting to control public confidence both the Soviet and US systems fail since captalism is the foundation debauched, corrupted, distorted, and mangled by the Federal Reserve... it will only take longer for the US to decline (Ravi Batra is right on target!!!) what I find most perverse and ludicrous is the USdollar attempting to serve the role of gold as a store of value gold has worked well for 1000's of years but another ironic parallel is evident: the Soviets falsely assumed the identity of Russians the dollar is falsely assuming the identity of gold / jim