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Strategies & Market Trends : Zeev's Turnips - No Politics -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: DebtBomb who wrote (57588)	4/27/2002 8:49:19 AM
From: limtex	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 99280

DW - This is sell in May time. Thats it. The bears can have fun in the sun but the economy is recovering, so are the Asian economies. Europe isn't collapsing. Art Cashin has a bad case of bear disease. Its easy to keep making predictions about falling hard and capitulation when there is a lack of buying interest as there has been very often at this time of year. No collapse in this environment is going to satisfy this criterion for a bottom There is no collapse that ends it so long as there are no buyers. Conversely after the sell in May period ie sometime before Labor day two things are going to happen:- Firstly the economic numbers are going to continue to improve and Secondly buyers will return to the market. Mr Cashin changes his advice from day to day just as most of the talking heads do. Yesterday was really gloom filled so we get a "need capitulation" theory. I haven't looked at the posts but I do remember some them and this total collapse and capitualation story gets regurgitated every time there is a sell-off. Last year and the year before it was justified because the ecoomy was collapsing having been blown up by Mr Gs irrational obsession with the NAZ and talk of non-existant inflation and 'drum tight' labor markets. Those days ar gone and there is a recovery. But in this climate of fear and no confidence and talk of crooks and bankruptcies that are all the hallmarks of an early recovery after a collapse it is nowonder that it is easier for managers to sit on their hands and short stock rather than buy it. This time at this period in the earnings season the sell off has almost become traditional. This is clear in the middle of an earnings seaon that has nothing to offer. But then this earnings season was always going to be another washout albeit less bad than anything in the last 4-5 qtrs. The next earnigns will be better and the outlooks will be better. That much we have heard from a number of companies. Not all of them the telco industry, as of today, can see no light or most of them can't. But telco is special and is a big industry in the midst of a masssive change one aspect of which is that much of the World that can afford to pay has been equiped with mobile systems and handests and thus we move into a replacement market and those companies that built out the networks will have less business for years and may never return to that short lived level of business. But there is even here a bright spot and that is the move to mobile IP or 3G as it is known. That is happening and many on SI will by the end of this year have 3G handsets and be able to surf, reeive e-mail or day trade anywhere they like freed from the ball and chain that tied them to having to sit at home or at the office. The other aspect is that the foxed line and LD business is slowly deacaying may even not so slowly. But overall data volumes are increasing and will incease even further in the next few years. Interestingly enough that move just in the US is going to restart the backhaul and infrastructure business as it will generate huge demand for bandwidth in the US, Korea and Japan. All of this is going to happen and indeed is slowly happening now. See what happens around the middle of July. I bet you will like all the goodies that you will see and so will many on SI as I have said even the shorts!!! Best, L

To: DebtBomb who wrote (57588)	4/27/2002 11:14:45 AM
From: augieboo	Respond to of 99280

IMHO, Art Cashin is just about the only regular on CNBS who knows what's what. (How much "they" let him say is another thing.)

To: DebtBomb who wrote (57588)	4/27/2002 11:29:28 AM
From: Les H	Read Replies (5) \| Respond to of 99280

No, the capitulation comes when the safe harbor stocks are sold and sold hard. techs are source of funds for transfer into index funds for 'value', small cap, mid cap, financial, and so on. the capitulation needs to come to those areas.