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Technology Stocks : Leap Wireless International (LWIN) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Lance Bredvold who wrote (1956)	4/27/2002 7:59:18 PM
From: arun gera	Respond to of 2737

>$14mm in reduced fraud expenses would make Arun's spreadsheet almost eerily accurate in most respects.> I was surprised at my luck at hitting many numbers. Maybe my years of modeling environmental systems helped. Old Timers in my past profession as an environmental engineer used to work with "rules of thumb", as their experience was from a pre-computer era. A bunch of us younger engineers (then young) developed models that made decision-making easier for the Environmental Protection Agency and water utilities. pirnie.com Unfortunately, business models are not as well behaved as physical models. I am speaking from personal experience having been involved with starting three different somewhat successful small companies. When there are so many underlying parameters, "rules of thumb" can go only so far. Woody_charlieblack and Nolascott on the yahoo thread have a good sense of the Telecom world and in the end they could well be right. PCSTEL and I have some engineering background, so we tend to search for possible solutions that could still make it work for Leap. Only if Leap executed really well and followed one of the few ways out of the labyrinth. Reminds me of Adventure films like Indiana Jones, where the protagonist is walking a rope bridge over the chasm, when the antagonist appears at the end of the rope bridge with a large knife in his hand and a wicked grin on his face. You know how the story ends there. Hope Leap's story is similar. Or maybe, we are fooling ourselves, because the protagonist always survives in such films. Maybe the real ending could be that the protagonist and antagonist cut a deal where the hero gets to keep a small portion of the treasure. Arun