Thanks for the kind words, but it seems clear that you must be as English challenged as I am, or you simply have not read my posts. My own trading philosophy is to trade only the long side. It is enough for me to be whipsawed just on one side, trading both sides, the long and the short, will assure I get whipsawed on both sides.
I have stated a number of times, almost at nauseum, that LTBH for the next few years will be folly, yet, even for those trading the bright side, bear market rallies, while far in between, are worth trading. I have stated that during these trying times for the bull, we cold get 2 maybe three worthwhile entry points and worth trading on the long side, each year. Last year we had three such periods, very early January, early April and late September. The trick last year was staying out of the big declines (and thus my ge out no later than 2:30 PM January 31st last year, was a perfect bear call, I wish my advance forecast on the next rally stage was better (I had March 12th as potential bottom, it was actually March 22 for the Dow and April 3rd for the Naz, but when we got to March 12th, I kept saying, "wait until you see the white in the MM's eyes", by April 3rd, I was "fully loaded"), then I had a get out in late May, and kept the negative bias (albeit with minor bounces, which were called not too badly) all through the decline to the September bottom, calling for reentry there. I expected a December retracement, it did not happen, so what, I missed extending the gain a little more, but did not risk losing Capital. My high for January was 2123 and we got only 2098 (where I started to move to cash again), you really think that these last 25 points miss was such a bad call?
More recently, I had a bearish call to get out no later than January 31st #reply-16962798, though I did not expect the decline to be particularly severe at the beginning, by 2/8 (#reply-17037029) I adjusted my target to the 1720 area (the actual February bottom was just under 1700, showing you that as usual, the turnips are somewhat a little too optimistic, even when they call the direction correctly and missed again, by about 25 points). And right now, that the spring rally I was expecting (my last buy was at 1733, we went to the mid 1720 and rallied to 1830), fell short of target, I got back into the bear suit at 1757 (still a profit from the last buy) and we are about 100 naz points lower. Staying out of these declines is what preserve capital. People that follow the "turnips" are right now around 70% cash mostly in "core issues", many of which made new highs in the last two weeks (I am not, because I also try and play minor intermediary rallies, like one I expect here to the mid 1700, thus my current cash is at around 35%, just decreased on Friday from more than 60%).
Yet, when asked, I try and give my opinions, in searching some posts for this response, I ran into jj's question about buying QCOM Arpil 20 puts (#reply-17103892) and my response (#reply17104141), in retrospective, playing that dark side game would have been disastrous, despite the market's tanking, and you see why I don't play it. People will make their own mind.
As for the 1400 level, it was always in this year scenario as the low of the year (not from three weeks ago, but from Dec 29th when I proposed a riad map for the year), as a matter of fact, under certain circumstances, which I have explained elsewhere, I stated the low could be lowered even further to just under 1300 (I believe I stated a nominal of 1286 for this condition's low). Will 1400 come in this June? Maybe yes maybe not, it could even be worse if we do not get a string of real fear readings.
If you are trying to get me to take a position and stay with it whether it is wrong or not, forget about it, I know I have been wrong before and know I will be wrong again, the point is to make money in the market, and that you do (if you play only the bright side) by going heavily in cash at perceived tops and heavily in equities at perceived bottoms. If you want me to take a fixed bearish stand such as Westpacific has taken, forget about it. The art is to stay flexible, roll with the punches the market delivers, or you'll get murdered, whether you are long or short.
As for gold, you once more must not be reading what I have said, as recently as three weeks ago I posted the following: on gold #reply-17288983, #reply-17288799. I personally do not play the golds, they are simply to emotional for a guy like me. That does not mean that people on this thread should not use the gold break out and play it. To the fullest.
Zeev |
