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Strategies & Market Trends : Dave Gore's Trades That Make Sense -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: T L Comiskey who wrote (6556)	4/28/2002 11:31:08 PM
From: d:oug	Respond to of 16631

Msg from T L Comiskey... Only bright spot in my port is... hgmcy..gold...gold...Gold T, Follows is the type of stuff to give one a head-ache or make one wonder why life has to be complicated :o) If possible could you note if Zeev Hed has made any general comments of where the price of gold is going short or long term. SI: StockTalk: Gold, Mining, and Natural Resources : Dutch Central Bank Sale Announcement Imminent? From: loantech Sunday, Apr 28, 2002 ... have a question for you. The stocks Drooy, Gold, HGMCY (harmony)...had great runs. Some say a lot of credit is due because the Rand has fallen in value against the dollar. So.........if the dollar slides in value against most currencies in the future, lets say by 20%, a huge move. Would that not mean the Rand would appreciate against the dollar and the stock prices of GOLD, DROOY, and HGMCY could fall as a result or... I see the knife cutting both ways on this one. ... seem that either way the currency "thing" goes the... Do you mind trying to clear up the muddy water for me? Thanks, Tom To:loantech From: Searle Sennett Sunday, Apr 28, 2002 Tom, your question(s) is/are very important not only to non-SA investors who buy SA golds but also to SA investors, like myself. You are quite correct, appreciation of the USD usually means depreciation of the ZAR and vice versa. ... [at] the moment, however (a) the rand is appreciating after a severe shake-out and, in addition (b) the rand is appreciating as the USD depreciates against the other currencies. It follows that if the POG doesn't keep rising in USDs the POG in ZARs will fall. Here are two charts (a) the ZAR-USD relationship (b) POG measured in ZARs (the price of KRs in rands is accurate enough) x-rates.com sharenet.co.za As you see, although the ZAR is now rising against the USD, the POG in ZARs is pretty steady because POG in USDs has also been rising. Looking at the relationship between the SA gold price and SA gold share prices (in ZARs) we see, although the SA gold price has been virtually constant, the different SA gold shares have been going up all the time. Here is the JSE Gold Index plus charts of the three stocks which interest you, all in ZARs on the JSE. sharenet.co.za sharenet.co.za sharenet.co.za sharenet.co.za In conclusion, my advice to you is not to be... More significant is still the... and the performance of... on the NYSE which, at present, show no signs of weakness.